Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 30

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Referee: Gutierrez C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Leones del Norte		Técnico Universitario

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.20	4.33	Watch
	1.88	3.10	3.70
	1.93	3.25	4.10	Watch
	1.93	3.42	4.39
	1.98	3.17	4.1	Watch
	1.86	3.35	4.30
	1.90	3.20	4.33	Watch
	1.86	3.15	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 (1.9)	3.23 ↓ (3.25)	4.17 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones del Norte
48.9%

Draw
28.8%

Técnico Universitario
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

28.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

24.3%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Técnico Universitario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Leones del Norte - Técnico Universitario Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 7. Luque M. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 50. Caicedo M. 5. Coppo T. 19. Pepinos E. 29. Madero P. 6. Griffa E. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)	12. Morales A. (G) 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 13. Anaya J. 5. Mena S. 85. Arce Y. 7. Estupinan L. 33. Majao J. 29. Cela A. 25. Delgado B. 8. Armas D. (C) 10. Johan Bocanegra
Substitutes
32. Aguas A. 17. Amilivia T. 18. Arellano J. 13. Cabeza J. 1. Congo J. (G) 16. De La Cruz M. 14. Folleco A. 25. Kreiman B. 70. Pazmino D. 34. Portocarrero S. 3. Vargas F. 8. Velez C.	30. Arce K. 67. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 70. Castano M. 19. Castillo A. 15. Castillo F. 4. Cordova 79. Cuero Q. C. A. 9. Guardia H. 1. Razzeto S. (G)
Coaches
Cordoba M.	Blanco I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', Arce Y. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Delgado B. ⚽, Estupinan L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Caicedo M. ↓, Portocarrero S. ↑,
46', Moran J. ↓, Kreiman B. ↑,
53', Pepinos E. 🟨,
57', Portocarrero S. 🟥,
60', Pepinos E. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
67', Arce Y. ↓, Cuero Q. C. A. ↑,
67', Johan Bocanegra ↓, Guardia H. ↑,
69', Mesa Mercado E. E. ↓, Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↑,
69', Armas D. ↓, Arce K. ↑,
74', Monserrat N. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
77', Cordoba M. 🟨,
77', Armas D. 🟨,
78', Cela A. 🟨,
79', Estupinan L. ↓, Castano M. ↑,
85', Madero P. ↓, De La Cruz M. ↑,
87', Griffa E. 🟨,
90+5', Morales A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Técnico Univ is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )

In recent matches, Leones del Norte has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Técnico Univ's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Técnico Univ may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leones del Norte is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leones del Norte won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Manta - Leones del Norte	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLLW
- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.09.26	Técnico Universitario - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
01.09.26	Delfín - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Guayaquil City	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.26	Técnico Universitario - Leones del Norte	2:1

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