Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 36

Date: 13 May 2023, Saturday


	Leonesa		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.25
	2.8	3.1	2.2
	2.9	3	2.35
	3.01	3.15	2.41
	3.02	3.28	2.28
	2.85	3.15	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (4.04)	3.11 ↓ (3.24)	2.3 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
31%

Draw
29.3%

Real Madrid Castilla
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

28.3%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

27.7%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leonesa's performance.

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid Castilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leonesa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid Castilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leonesa - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Leonesa is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Real Madrid Castilla is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leonesa won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Leonesa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.05.23	Badajoz - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
30.04.23	Leonesa - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
23.04.23	Mérida AD - Leonesa	3:1 ✺
16.04.23	Leonesa - Linense	1:1 ✺
09.04.23	San Fernando - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLTT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.05.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:3 ✺
30.04.23	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:7 ✺
22.04.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
15.04.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	3:0 ✺
09.04.23	Badajoz - Real Madrid Castilla	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.12.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	1:1
Club Friendly
12.08.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	2:2
14.08.19	Leonesa - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.02.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Leonesa	2:2
23.09.18	Leonesa - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2

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