Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 27 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz (Asunción)

Referee: Rapallini F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Germany	Sport 1+
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Libertad Asuncion		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.4	Watch
	3	3.1	2.4
	3.1	2.95	2.55
	3.34	3.1	2.43
	3.1	3	2.15
	3.13	3.24	2.33	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.43)	3.06 ↓ (3.32)	2.37 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
29.9%

Draw
30.6%

Atlético Mineiro
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

28.1%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

27.5%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	28.6%	50%

Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (C) 33. Piris I. 5. Viera D. 3. Barboza A. 17. Espinoza M. 21. Sanabria L. 16. Riveros C. 23. Gomez D. 15. Villalba H. 24. Santa C. R. 30. Gonzalez D.	22. Everson (G) 28. Lemos M. 25. Mariano 34. Jemerson 13. Guilherme Arana 15. Zaracho M. 21. Battaglia R. 8. Edenilson 9. Pavon C. 7. Hulk (C) 10. Paulinho
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz A. 20. Bareiro A. 14. Cardozo L. 4. Gimenez N. 19. Lezcano R. 32. Martinez C. 18. Mayada C. 10. Melgarejo L. 11. Mendieta W. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 9. Oviedo A. 2. Ramirez I.	14. Alan Kardec 6. Dodo 11. Eduardo Vargas 17. Igor Gomes 16. Igor Rabello 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 5. Otavio 49. Patrick 26. Renzo Saravia 4. Rever 44. Rubens 45. Santana A.
Coaches
Garnero D.	Scolari L.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Libertad won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.06.23	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
28.05.23	General Caballero JLM - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLWW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
24.06.23	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
21.06.23	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
10.06.23	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.06.23	Alianza Lima - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
06.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
26.04.17	Atlético Mineiro - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
19.04.17	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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