Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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Chile	Disney+
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Mexico	Disney+
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Spain	LaLiga+
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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Libertad Asuncion		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.1	1.9	Watch
	4.45	3.15	1.88	Watch
	4.76	3.21	1.93
	4.07	3.02	2.1	Watch
	4.4	3	1.85	Watch
	4.48	3.07	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.49 ↑ (2.87)	3.09 ↓ (3.13)	1.93 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
20.9%

Draw
30.4%

Rosario Central
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.4%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Rosario Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rosario Central's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rosario Central, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	45.5%	45.5%

Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Rosario will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rosario (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Gonzalez A. (G) 3. Rojas R. 5. Viera D. 31. Fernandez T. (C) 34. Villalba E. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 14. Fretes A. 8. Carrizo F. 19. Recalde J. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D.	23. Ledesma C. (C) 32. Coronel E. 46. Ovando I. 13. Avila G. 3. Sandez A. 5. Ibarra F. 20. Pizarro V. 16. Gimenez E. 18. Fernandez J. 8. Campaz J. 9. Veliz A.
Substitutes
11. Aguilar G. 37. Bernal J. 13. Bogarin J. 26. Caballero H. 32. Delvalle S. 18. Franco I. 4. Gimenez N. 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 7. Rojas M. 30. Vera O. R.	1. Broun J. (G) 7. Cabrera M. 26. Cantizano G. 22. Copetti E. 27. Duarte G. 28. Fernandez P. 31. Navarro F. 39. Oviedo F. 2. Quintana C. 47. Raffin L. 35. Ramos L. 33. Soto A.
Coaches
Arce F.	Almiron J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Campuzano A. 🟨,
11', Villalba E. 🟨,
33', Sandez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rojas R. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
58', Sanabria L. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
58', Fernandez J. ↓, Copetti E. ↑,
70', Sandez A. ↓, Soto A. ↑,
70', Veliz A. ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
74', Carrizo F. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
76', Fernandez P. 🟨,
83', 0 - 1, Copetti E. ⚽, Coronel E. (A),
87', Pizarro V. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
87', Coronel E. ↓, Quintana C. ↑,
88', Viera D. ↓, Vera O. R. ↑,
90+6', Ibarra F. 🟨,

Preview

Libertad is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rosario has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rosario is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Rosario: Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Komar J. (Heart Problems) Mallo Blanco F. (Inactive) Raffin L. (Inactive) Ruben M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Libertad: Fernandez H. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Libertad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Rosario Central: 2.39%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Universidad Central - Libertad Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
30.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
27.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLWL
- Rosario Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - Rosario Central	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Rosario Central - Independiente del Valle	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.04.26	Rosario Central - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Rosario Central	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Rosario Central - Banfield	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.05.19	Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
04.04.19	Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central	2:0

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