Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Universidad Central		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.98	2.92	2.52	Watch
	3.16	2.95	2.54
	3.24	2.92	2.42	Watch
	3	2.8	2.45
	3.17	2.99	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (3.04)	2.95 ↓ (3.05)	2.5 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad Central
30.4%

Draw
31.9%

Libertad Asuncion
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

30.8%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

30.9%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad Central than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	36.4%	63.6%

Universidad Central - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Schiavone G. (G) 2. Silva K. 5. Martinez L. (C) 19. Simarra A. 27. Carrillo D. 6. Sole F. 30. Gonzalez A. 10. Sosa S. 8. Zapata J. 7. Cuesta J. 11. Bolivar J.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 34. Villalba E. 31. Fernandez T. 5. Viera D. 26. Caballero H. 6. Campuzano A. 28. Fernandez M. 21. Sanabria L. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)
Substitutes
57. Cermeno C. 16. De Sousa D. 47. Granko A. 23. Hernandez Y. 14. Mendoza K. 1. Morales L. (G) 9. Murillo Y. 21. Ortiz C. 3. Ramirez R. 17. Rodriguez V. 28. Ruiz M. 4. Velasquez W.	11. Aguilar G. 8. Carrizo F. 32. Delvalle S. 14. Fretes A. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 33. Martinez C. 22. Martinez H. 27. Molinas A. 2. Ramirez I. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 23. Villalba P.
Coaches
Sasso D.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Cuesta J. 🟨,
13', Villalba E. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Cuesta J. ⚽,
45+3', Bolivar J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', 1 - 1, Melgarejo L. ⚽, Gimenez N. (A),
64', Fernandez M. ↓, Villalba P. ↑,
66', Sosa S. ↓, Granko A. ↑,
68', Villalba P. 🟨,
77', Melgarejo L. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
77', Sanabria L. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
79', Silva K. 🟨,
80', Zapata J. ↓, Murillo Y. ↑,
84', Campuzano A. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
84', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Fretes A. ↑,
87', Bolivar J. ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
87', Gonzalez A. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
87', Cuesta J. ↓, De Sousa D. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Murillo Y. ⚽, Sole F. (A),
90+2', Granko A. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 1, Sole F. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Libertad: Fernandez H. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
03.04.26	Academia Anzoátegui - Universidad Central	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Universidad Central - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Universidad Central	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Universidad Central - Estudiantes de Mérida	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Rayo Zuliano - Universidad Central	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLTW
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
30.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
27.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:3 ✺
18.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLW

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