What is the expert prediction for Rosario Central vs Independiente del Valle?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Rosario Central vs Independiente del Valle. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Rosario Central vs Independiente del Valle Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Gigante de Arroyito (Rosario)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Georgia	Silk Universal
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	Rosario Central		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	7.5	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4.6
	1.5	3.7	7.4	Watch
	1.5	4.15	7.41
	1.54	3.83	7.07	Watch
	1.44	3.8	6.5
	1.5	3.85	7.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.82)	3.78 ↑ (3.25)	6.79 ↑ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rosario Central
61.1%

Draw
25%

Independiente del Valle
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

28.8%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

28.1%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosario Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rosario Central's performance.

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente del Valle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rosario Central that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente del Valle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	27.3%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Rosario will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rosario: 46.4% – 99%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Rosario (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -1 - Ind del Valle (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Rosario (votes: 1 - 50%). Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 50%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ledesma C. (G) 32. Coronel E. 46. Ovando I. 13. Avila G. 3. Sandez A. 5. Ibarra F. 20. Pizarro V. 16. Gimenez E. 11. Di Maria A. (C) 8. Campaz J. 9. Veliz A.	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 23. Viacava J. 19. Loor L. 53. Lerma J. 6. Alcivar J. 11. Perello M. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 9. Gonzalez C.
Substitutes
1. Broun J. (G) 7. Cabrera M. 26. Cantizano G. 22. Copetti E. 27. Duarte G. 18. Fernandez J. 31. Navarro F. 39. Oviedo F. 2. Quintana C. 47. Raffin L. 35. Ramos L. 33. Soto A.	50. Angulo J. 16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 55. Guagua D. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 70. Peralta M. (G) 99. Reasco D. 17. Rodriguez A. 33. Velasco A. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Almiron J.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Perello M. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
58', Pata E. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
58', Lerma J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
60', Sornoza J. 🟥,
63', Coronel E. ↓, Copetti E. ↑,
73', Romero Padilla D. A. ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
75', Ibarra F. 🟨,
80', Quintana A. 🟨,
82', Ovando I. ↓, Quintana C. ↑,
85', Campaz J. 🟨,
88', Gonzalez C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
89', Sandez A. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Rosario is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Rosario: Avila G. (Injury) Di Maria A. (Inactive) Fernandez J. (Heel Injury) Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Komar J. (Heart Problems) Ovando I. (Inactive) Ruben M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Pombo J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Ind del Valle: Cazares (Injury) Villar G. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosario Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.04.26	Rosario Central - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Rosario Central	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Rosario Central - Banfield	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Argentinos Juniors - Rosario Central	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Newells Old Boys - Rosario Central	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLWTW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.04.26	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLTW

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