Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cruzeiro		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	5.5	Watch
	1.49	3.95	6.9
	1.48	4.15	7.87
	1.41	4.51	8.21
	1.5	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.54	4.14	5.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.36)	4.09 ↓ (4.73)	6.78 ↓ (7.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
63.2%

Draw
22.9%

Universidad Católica
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

19.6%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

18.4%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Cunha (G) 2. Kaua Moraes 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 8. Matheus Henrique 11. Gerson 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira (C) 94. Wanderson 22. Villarreal N.	1. Bernedo V. (G) 2. Gonzalez D. 19. Ampuero B. 26. Diaz J. 3. Mena E. 20. Valencia J. 11. Montes C. 8. Zuqui F. 15. Cuevas C. 7. Giani J. 9. Zampedri F. (C)
Substitutes
99. Arroyo K. 9. Bruno Rodrigues 91. Chico 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 81. Otavio Costa (G) 29. Romero L. 12. William Furtado	6. Arancibia S. 13. Canales A. 46. Carcamo V. 28. Cerezo B. 25. Corral D. 22. Gomez M. 14. Martinez J. A. 27. Melo D. (G) 10. Palavecino M. 42. Pino N. 18. Rossel J. 12. Valdes F. (G)
Coaches
Artur Jorge	Garnero D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Giani J. ⚽, Zuqui F. (A),
32', Giani J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wanderson ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
46', Kaua Moraes ↓, William Furtado ↑,
48', Zuqui F. 🟨,
49', Gerson 🟨,
54', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
59', Bernedo V. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Matheus Pereira (Penalty Awarded),
62', Valencia J. 🟨,
63', Matheus Henrique 🟨,
67', Romero L. 🟨,
72', Matheus Pereira ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
78', Montes C. ↓, Arancibia S. ↑,
78', Mena E. ↓, Palavecino M. ↑,
81', Lucas Silva 🟨,
83', Villarreal N. ↓, Chico ↑,
89', Giani J. ↓, Rossel J. ↑,
89', Zampedri F. ↓, Martinez J. A. ↑,
89', Christian ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Martinez J. A. ⚽, Valencia J. (A),

Preview

Cruzeiro is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Uni Católica's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Uni Católica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruzeiro is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Sinisterra L. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Romero L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Uni Católica: Farias A. (Injury) L’Huillier N. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Cruzeiro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Cruzeiro: 5.59% U. Catolica: 0.99%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Cruzeiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	4:1 ✺
01.04.26	Cruzeiro - Vitória Salvador	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Cruzeiro - Santos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWT
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
11.04.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad Católica	3:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Universidad Católica - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
02.04.26	Universidad Católica - Palestino	6:1 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
30.03.26	Cobresal - Universidad Católica	1:3 ✺
25.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
30.05.24	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:0
04.04.24	Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro	0:0

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