Match Info

League One - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)


	Luton Town		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.85	3
	2.38	3.2	2.98
	2.54	3.18	2.82	Watch
	2.4	3	2.9
	2.49	3.02	2.98	Watch
	2.42	3.14	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.06)	3.07 ↓ (3.26)	2.95 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
38.4%

Draw
30.2%

Lincoln City
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.6%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

29.5%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luton Town's form might have worsened.

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lincoln City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lincoln City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Luton Town - Lincoln City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Lincoln (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Luton (3.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 4 - 80%). Lincoln (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 17. Lonwijk N. 5. Andersen M. 3. Naismith K. (C) 38. Johnson J. 8. Walsh L. 33. Bramall C. 30. Kodua G. 18. Clark J. 32. Lawrence E. 21. Wells N.	1. Wickens G. (G) 2. Darikwa T. 22. Hamer T. 15. Bradley S. 3. Reach A. 14. McGrandles C. 24. Varfolomeev I. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 10. Moylan J. 17. Street R. 34. Draper F.
Substitutes
28. Makosso C. 14. Morris S. 27. Richards J. 23. Saville G. 1. Shea J. (G) 2. Walters R. 9. Yates J.	13. Jeacock Z. (G) 16. Jefferies D. 4. Montsma L. 37. Okewoye G. 21. Pardington J. (G) 12. Ring E. 6. Towler R.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Skubala M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Draper F. ⚽, Moylan J. (A),
22', 0 - 2, Street R. ⚽, Hamer T. (A),
35', 1 - 2, Kodua G. ⚽, Walsh L. (A),
39', Street R. 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 2, Wells N. ⚽, Naismith K. (A),
45+6', Varfolomeev I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Varfolomeev I. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
46', McGrandles C. 🟨,
49', Bramall C. 🟨,
60', Lawrence E. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
68', Moylan J. ↓, Ring E. ↑,
75', Jefferies D. 🟨,
77', Kodua G. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
86', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Towler R. ↑,
89', Wells N. ↓, Yates J. ↑,
90+5', Draper F. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2.

Luton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lincoln is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Luton has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Inactive) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Jones I. (Injury) Richards J. (Injury)

There will not play in Lincoln: Collins J. (Knee Injury) Honohan J. (Injury) House B. (Inactive) Jackson A. (Surgery) Thorn O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Naismith K. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 3.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lincoln City - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 26.07%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English EFL Trophy
13.01.26	Luton Town - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
English League One
10.01.26	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
01.01.26	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Luton Town - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Luton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLWW
- Lincoln City
English League One
04.01.26	Lincoln City - Peterborough United	5:2 ✺
01.01.26	Lincoln City - Huddersfield Town	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Barnsley - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Stockport County - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Lincoln City - Cardiff City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
20.09.25	Lincoln City - Luton Town	3:1
English League Two
01.01.18	Luton Town - Lincoln City	4:2
02.09.17	Lincoln City - Luton Town	0:0
English National League
04.01.14	Lincoln City - Luton Town	0:0
21.09.13	Luton Town - Lincoln City	3:2
09.04.13	Luton Town - Lincoln City	3:0
06.10.12	Lincoln City - Luton Town	1:2

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