Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Anfield (Liverpool)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Liverpool		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2.3	4.1	2.63
	2.35	4.15	2.68
	2.4	4.24	2.7
	2.52	4.22	2.42	Watch
	2.3	3.9	2.5
	2.42	4.24	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (3.37)	4.14 ↑ (3.96)	2.61 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool
40.2%

Draw
23.1%

Paris Saint-Germain
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

24%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

23.9%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Liverpool's performance.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Liverpool that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	12.8%	53.8%

Liverpool - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 10 - 30.3%). PSG will win (votes: 18 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 37.5% – 71.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - PSG (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - PSG (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - PSG (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 30. Frimpong J. 5. Konate I. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 6. Kerkez M. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 8. Szoboszlai D. 7. Wirtz F. 9. Isak A. 22. Ekitike H.	39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
14. Chiesa F. 18. Gakpo C. 2. Gomez J. 17. Jones C. 74. Misciur K. (G) 65. Nallo A. 73. Ngumoha R. 42. Nyoni T. 26. Robertson A. 11. Salah M. 28. Woodman F. (G)	29. Barcola B. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Slot A.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Ekitike H. ↓, Salah M. ↑,
38', Mendes N. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
45+1', Mac Allister A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Frimpong J. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
46', Isak A. ↓, Gakpo C. ↑,
52', Doue D. ↓, Barcola B. ↑,
67', Gomez J. ↓, Ngumoha R. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Dembele O. ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
74', Mac Allister A. ↓, Jones C. ↑,
81', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
85', Konate I. 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 2, Dembele O. ⚽, Barcola B. (A),

Preview

First leg result: 0-2. Second leg.

Recent performances by Liverpool have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Liverpool: Alisson (Muscle Injury) Bajcetic S. (Hamstring Injury) Bradley C. (Knee Injury) Davies H. (Inactive) Endo W. (Foot Injury) Leoni G. (Knee Injury) Williams R. (Inactive)

There will not play in PSG: Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Liverpool won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52% Liverpool: 4.9%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
11.04.26	Liverpool - Fulham	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Manchester City - Liverpool	4:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Liverpool	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Liverpool - Galatasaray	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLLW
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
08.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Nice - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
11.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	2:0
11.03.25	Liverpool - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 penalties
05.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	0:1
28.11.18	Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool	2:1
18.09.18	Liverpool - Paris Saint-Germain	3:2

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