Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parc des Princes (Paris) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	00:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring
Canada	16:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN 2
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, V Sport Fotbool
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Selekt, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Moji, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Kazakhstan	02:00	Kazakhstan TV
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Macao	04:00	TDM TV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	14:00	FOX One, Fox Sports
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 3 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	06:00	TVWan Sports
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN 2
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	01:00	Futbol TV
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab, VTV Prime
International	20:00	VIX App


	Paris Saint-Germain		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.7
	1.85	3.9	3.9
	1.95	3.8	3.8
	1.97	3.95	3.9
	2.02	3.7	3.63	Watch
	1.91	3.6	3.75
	1.9	3.86	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.79)	3.79 ↓ (4.07)	3.82 ↓ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
49.7%

Draw
25.3%

Chelsea
25.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.7%

23.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

23.4%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.6%	18.2%	19.2%

Paris Saint Germain - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 95 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 60 - 63.2%). Chelsea will win (votes: 19 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 16.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 53.5% – 72.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 20 - 69%). Chelsea (votes: 4 - 13.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Chelsea (2.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

TQ, OT - Chelsea (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - PSG (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 21 - 65.6%). Chelsea (votes: 6 - 18.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 15.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 27. Gusto M. 29. Fofana W. 23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 10. Palmer C. 8. Fernandez E. 7. Neto P. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.	34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 5. Badiashile B. 9. Delap L. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 45. Lavia R. 50. Merrick M. (G) 1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sarr M.
Coaches
Luis Enrique	Rosenior L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Barcola B. ⚽, Neves J. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Gusto M. ⚽, Fernandez E. (A),
40', 2 - 1, Dembele O. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 2 - 2, Fernandez E. ⚽, Neto P. (A),
62', Doue D. ↓, Kvaratskhelia K. ↑,
69', Dembele O. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
74', 3 - 2, Vitinha ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
78', Barcola B. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
78', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
83', Palmer C. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
83', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
86', 4 - 2, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Pacho W. (A),
88', Kvaratskhelia K. 🟨,
88', Gusto M. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
90+4', 5 - 2, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

PSG is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in PSG: Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Inactive) Estêvão (Muscle Injury) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Sharman-Lowe T. (Inactive) Slonina G. (Inactive) Wiley C. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, PSG won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, PSG won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	3	3	0	0	14:5	9	9

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 16.99%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
06.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Le Havre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
21.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Metz	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTWW
- Chelsea
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Wrexham - Chelsea	2:4 ET ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
01.03.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Hull City - Chelsea	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

FIFA Club World Cup
13.07.25	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	3:0
UEFA Champions League
09.03.16	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2
16.02.16	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	2:1
International Champions Cup
25.07.15	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	1:1
UEFA Champions League
11.03.15	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ET
17.02.15	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	1:1
08.04.14	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0

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