Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2.25	4.2	2.7
	2.05	4.1	3
	2.25	4.25	2.82
	2.33	4.34	2.74
	2.23	4.32	2.85	Watch
	2.25	3.9	2.7
	2.4	4.29	2.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.08)	4.2 ↓ (4.35)	2.78 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
42.6%

Draw
22.8%

Paris Saint-Germain
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

22.1%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

22.9%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50.9%	15.1%	34%

Chelsea - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 26 - 50%). PSG will win (votes: 18 - 34.6%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 36.4% – 63.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 5 - 55.6%). PSG (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - PSG (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - PSG (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - PSG (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - PSG (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 5 - 38.5%). PSG (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 19. Sarr M. 23. Chalobah T. 21. Hato J. 3. Cucurella M. 17. Andrey Santos 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 8. Fernandez E. (C) 10. Palmer C. 20. Joao Pedro	39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 29. Barcola B. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 9. Delap L. 41. Estêvão 29. Fofana W. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 76. Kavuma McQueen R. 45. Lavia R. 50. Merrick M. (G) 62. Mheuka S. 28. Sharman-Lowe T. (G)	4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 14. Doue D. 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Rosenior L.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Barcola B. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Neves J. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
46', Sarr M. ↓, Acheampong J. ↑,
59', Barcola B. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
59', Joao Pedro ↓, Delap L. ↑,
59', Palmer C. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
60', Fernandez E. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Mayulu S. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
66', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
66', Mendes N. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
71', Cucurella M. ↓, Adarabioyo T. ↑,
73', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-5. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 1.

In recent matches, Chelsea has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

Recently, PSG has had a series of home games.

Chelsea could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Inactive) Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) James R. (Hamstring Injury) Jorgensen F. (Groin Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended) Sharman-Lowe T. (Inactive) Slonina G. (Inactive) Wiley C. (Inactive)

There will not play in PSG: Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Gusto M. (Illness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Chelsea - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 46.15%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
14.03.26	Chelsea - Newcastle United	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	5:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Wrexham - Chelsea	2:4 ET ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
01.03.26	Arsenal - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWL
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	5:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
06.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Le Havre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
21.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Metz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	5:2
FIFA Club World Cup
13.07.25	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	3:0
UEFA Champions League
09.03.16	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2
16.02.16	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	2:1
International Champions Cup
25.07.15	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	1:1
UEFA Champions League
11.03.15	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ET
17.02.15	Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea	1:1

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