Match Info

Cymru South - Round 12

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Llanelli		Afan Lido

	1	X	2
	4.7	4.25	1.49
	4.93	4.68	1.48
	5.1	4.66	1.51	Watch
	4.85	4.6	1.46
	5.22	4.4	1.45
	4.8	4.4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.93 ↑ (3.81)	4.5 ↑ (4.19)	1.49 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli
18.5%

Draw
20.2%

Afan Lido
61.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.4%

22.2%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

20.4%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Llanelli's form might have worsened.

Afan Lido has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Afan Lido's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llanelli than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Llanelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Afan Lido, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Llanelli - Afan Lido Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Griffiths L. ⚽,
14', Griffiths L. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 0 - 2, Giardelli A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 0 - 3, De Meyer J. ⚽,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llanelli won 4.

Llanelli is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Afan Lido has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Llanelli has faced a series of away games on the road.

Bookmakers give the edge to Afan Lido for this game.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Llanelli has recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:18 (averaging 1.7:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Llanelli against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 12:11 goals (averaging 1.7:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21:22	-1	15
16	Llanelli	12	0	2	10	9:36	-27	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli
Welsh FA Cup
16.10.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	6:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
10.10.26	Ynyshir Albions - Llanelli	6:2 ✺
02.10.26	Llanelli - Baglan Dragons	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Llantwit Major - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Afan Lido
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.26	Afan Lido - Pen-y-Bont	2:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
09.10.26	Afan Lido - Pure Swansea	5:5 ✺
02.10.26	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	2:0 ✺
25.09.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
28.03.25	Llanelli - Afan Lido	1:1
10.01.25	Afan Lido - Llanelli	0:1
05.01.24	Llanelli - Afan Lido	3:2
17.11.23	Afan Lido - Llanelli	0:3
03.03.23	Afan Lido - Llanelli	0:1
29.07.22	Llanelli - Afan Lido	3:1
18.03.22	Llanelli - Afan Lido	1:1

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