Match Info

Cymru South - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Aberystwyth Town		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.40	2.90
	2.02	3.56	3.17
	2.18	3.72	2.92	Watch
	2.00	3.50	3.10
	2.19	3.76	2.88
	2.08	3.55	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.33)	3.58 ↓ (3.62)	2.99 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
43.8%

Draw
25.5%

Caerau Ely
30.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.9%

25.7%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

24.5%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Aberystwyth Town - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 0 - 1, Sheppard G. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 2nd and 4th).

Aberystwyth is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Caerau shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Aberystwyth may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Aberystwyth is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Aberystwyth has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:5 (averaging 0:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aberystwyth against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:4 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22:9	13	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22:20	2	19

Last Results with these Odds

Aberystwyth Town - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.89%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.26	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	1:3 ✺
25.09.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pure Swansea	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
31.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Llanelli	4:0 ✺
28.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTWWW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
02.10.26	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Cardiff Draconians - Caerau Ely	1:3 ✺
11.09.26	Caerau Ely - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
01.03.26	Aberystwyth Town - Caerau Ely	0:4
20.12.25	Caerau Ely - Aberystwyth Town	1:0

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