Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Lobos UPNFM		Olancho

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.35
	3.8	3.45	1.78
	4.28	3.6	1.75
	4.2	3.7	1.78	Watch
	4	3.3	1.75
	4.48	3.58	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (2.59)	3.49 ↑ (3.26)	1.85 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lobos UPNFM
23.7%

Draw
26.4%

Olancho
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27.6%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

27.7%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lobos UPNFM's form might have worsened.

Olancho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olancho's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lobos UPNFM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olancho than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olancho, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Lobos UPNFM - Olancho Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Lobos UPNFM will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Olancho will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valladares C. (G) 4. Garcia J. 21. Guity E. 13. Gutierrez C. 2. Lopez L. 8. Nunez J. 25. Onofre G. 27. Pena K. 9. Rochez J. 16. Vasquez E. 5. Zuniga A.	1. Fonseca H. (G) 14. Argueta C. 17. Benitez E. 20. Cabrera Y. A. 24. Elvir O. 8. Gomez H. 2. Lasso J. 5. Martinez D. 30. Ramirez Arauz M. R. 18. Villatoro A. 21. Zuniga Bernardez C. J.
Substitutes
. Ardon C. 30. Herrlein L. 55. Lagos J. (G) 26. Lopez B. 22. Lopez E. 32. Martinez J. 11. Moreira R. 6. Ponce J. 7. Rochez C.	29. Argueta G. (G) 11. Calix C. 63. Chavez M. 15. Dominguez J. 10. Leiva G. 31. Lopez C. 19. Martinez G. 12. Mejia Y. 27. Murillo D. 7. Rodriguez D. 9. Sanchez J. . Villatoro G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Cabrera Y. A. ⚽,
21', Gutierrez C. 🟨,
29', Garcia J. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Pena K. ⚽,
43', Fonseca H. 🟨,
44', Martinez D. 🟨,
45', 2 - 1, Pena K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Villatoro A. ↓, Mejia Y. ↑,
49', Guity E. 🟨,
58', Cabrera Y. A. ↓, Calix C. ↑,
58', Ramirez Arauz M. R. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
59', Lasso J. 🟨,
61', Nunez J. ↓, Rochez C. ↑,
62', Pena K. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
62', Guity E. ↓, Herrlein L. ↑,
68', Martinez D. ↓, Leiva G. ↑,
78', Leiva G. 🟨,
90', Gomez H. 🟨,
90', Rochez J. ↓, Lopez B. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', Gomez H. 🟨,
90+5', Benitez E. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 0.

Lobos UPNFM has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Olancho is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lobos UPNFM may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lobos UPNFM won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Olancho	8	2	5	1	6:5	1	11
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
20.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Juticalpa	3:2 ✺
02.03.26	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWW
- Olancho FC
Honduras Liga Nacional
18.03.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Olancho	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Olancho - Real España	3:0 ✺
11.03.26	Génesis PN - Olancho	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Olancho - Platense	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Motagua - Olancho	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
01.02.26	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	1:1
08.11.25	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	1:1
10.09.25	Lobos UPNFM - Olancho	1:1
27.04.25	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	3:2
22.02.25	Lobos UPNFM - Olancho	1:1
05.10.24	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	4:0
03.08.24	Lobos UPNFM - Olancho	1:0

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