Match Info

Date: 8 April 2022, Friday


	Lorient		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.8	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.6
	2.17	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.75
	2.17	3.2	4.02
	2.15	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.13	3.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.37)	3.14 ↓ (3.23)	3.79 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
44.5%

Draw
30.3%

Saint-Étienne
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.7%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Saint-Étienne might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorient that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Saint-Étienne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.9%	49.3%	5.8%

Lorient - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 69 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 31 - 44.9%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 4 - 5.8%). It will Tie (votes: 34 - 49.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 37.5% – 61.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Ligue 1 (Relegation)).

Lorient has the most likely position - 16 (23.47%), has project points - 38, has currently - 28, has a small chance of relegated (12%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Saint-Étienne has the most likely position - 18 (25.19%), has project points - 35, has currently - 27, has a chance of relegated (33%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 52, importance 52, match rating 52. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lorient won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Lorient will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Lorient won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 18-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Lorient won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
03.04.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Lorient	5:1 ✺
20.03.22	Lorient - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
13.03.22	Clermont - Lorient	0:2 ✺
04.03.22	Lorient - Lyon	1:4 ✺
27.02.22	Brest - Lorient	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LTWLW
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
03.04.22	Saint-Étienne - Olympique Marseille	2:4 ✺
18.03.22	Saint-Étienne - Troyes	1:1 ✺
11.03.22	Lille - Saint-Étienne	0:0 ✺
06.03.22	Saint-Étienne - Metz	1:0 ✺
26.02.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Saint-Étienne	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.08.21	Saint-Étienne - Lorient	1:1
28.02.21	Lorient - Saint-Étienne	2:1
30.08.20	Saint-Étienne - Lorient	2:0
12.02.17	Saint-Étienne - Lorient	4:0
17.12.16	Lorient - Saint-Étienne	2:1
24.04.16	Saint-Étienne - Lorient	2:0
23.08.15	Lorient - Saint-Étienne	0:1

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