Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV6
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Lorient		Lyon

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.4	2	Watch
	3.7	3.45	2.02
	3.81	3.47	2.11
	3.7	3.49	2.02	Watch
	3.7	3.2	2
	3.74	3.52	2.16	Watch
	3.75	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.04)	3.42 ↓ (3.55)	2.05 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
25.6%

Draw
27.9%

Lyon
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

26.6%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

26.6%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorient's form might have worsened.

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	13%	79.6%

Lorient - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 4 - 7.5%). Lyon will win (votes: 42 - 79.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 68.3% – 90.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lyon (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 15 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 44. Yongwa D. 11. Le Bris T. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 28. Soumano S.	1. Greif D. (G) 22. Clinton Mata 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 98. Maitland-Niles A. 23. Morton T. 39. de Carvalho M. 16. Abner Vinicius 10. Sulc P. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 20. Satriano M.
Substitutes
32. Adjei N. 9. Bamba M. 8. Cadiou N. 12. Dieng B. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 15. Tosin A.	41. Barisic T. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 32. Gomes A. 33. Hateboer H. 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K. 17. Moreira A.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Maitland-Niles A. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Pagis P. ⚽,
42', Maitland-Niles A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', de Carvalho M. ↓, Hateboer H. ↑,
57', Soumano S. 🟨,
66', Abergel L. 🟨,
70', Tagliafico N. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
71', Soumano S. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
71', Pagis P. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
78', Makengo J. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
90+1', Le Bris T. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
90+1', Abergel L. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lorient may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lyon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Ankle Injury) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Sanusi T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kluivert R. (Ankle Injury) Mangala O. (Muscle Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Tessmann T. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Lyon - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.34%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Lorient - Nice	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Nantes - Lorient	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Lens - Lorient	3:0 ✺
29.10.25	Lorient - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTTLT
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Lyon - Nantes	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Lyon	0:6 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Auxerre - Lyon	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Lyon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Betis - Lyon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.03.24	Lorient - Lyon	0:2
08.10.23	Lyon - Lorient	3:3
05.03.23	Lyon - Lorient	0:0
07.09.22	Lorient - Lyon	3:1
04.03.22	Lorient - Lyon	1:4
25.09.21	Lyon - Lorient	1:1
08.05.21	Lyon - Lorient	4:1

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