Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 29

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Lucchese		Carpi

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.2
	2.29	3.15	3.31
	2.29	3.05	3.33
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.17	3.1	3.17	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.5)	3.02 ↑ (3)	3.24 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
41.2%

Draw
30.4%

Carpi
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

29.6%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lucchese's performance.

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carpi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lucchese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carpi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lucchese - Carpi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
59. Melgrati R. (G) 27. Gucher R. 5. Benedetti S. 3. Rizzo N. 30. Gemignani A. 31. Catanese G. 21. Visconti E. 29. Antoni E. 70. Saporiti E. 9. Magnaghi S. 10. Selvini A.	1. Sorzi M. (G) 19. Rossini M. 6. Zagnoni D. 13. Panelli T. 36. Rigo M. 4. Mandelli A. (C) 30. Contiliano N. 11. Amayah P. 72. Cortesi M. 14. Fossati D. 23. Sall A.
Substitutes
12. Allegrucci L. (G) 23. Ballarini M. 26. Cartano R. 1. Coletta J. (G) 2. da Silva J. 6. Gasbarro A. 80. Gheza F. 15. Salomaa H. 24. Welbeck N.	5. Calanca A. 70. Campagna S. 24. Casarini F. 3. Cecotti T. 90. Figoli M. 27. Gerbi E. 12. Lorenzi C. (G) 20. Puletto F. 10. Saporetti S. 7. Stanzani L. 16. Tcheuna R. 22. Theiner D. (G) 2. Verza N. 77. Visani R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', Rossini M. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Saporiti E. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Cortesi M. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Mandelli A. 🟨,
58', 2 - 1, Magnaghi S. ⚽,
62', Mandelli A. ↓, Puletto F. ↑,
62', Fossati D. ↓, Gerbi E. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Cortesi M. ⚽,
71', Sall A. ↓, Figoli M. ↑,
71', Contiliano N. ↓, Casarini F. ↑,
71', Saporiti E. ↓, Welbeck N. ↑,
74', Amayah P. 🟨,
81', Magnaghi S. ↓, Ballarini M. ↑,
88', Visconti E. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
90+4', Rizzo N. 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 15 and 14).

Lucchese is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Carpi is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lucchese will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Lucchese: Ballarini M. (Injury)

There will not play in Carpi: Forapani M. (Knee Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lucchese won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group B
23.02.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	1:1 ✺
17.02.25	Lucchese - Perugia	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Milan Futuro - Lucchese	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Pianese - Lucchese	2:0 ✺
24.01.25	Lucchese - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TWWLW
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
22.02.25	Carpi - Pianese	0:1 ✺
15.02.25	Pontedera - Carpi	0:2 ✺
09.02.25	Carpi - Pescara	1:2 ✺
31.01.25	Ascoli - Carpi	2:1 ✺
25.01.25	Carpi - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
20.10.24	Carpi - Lucchese	0:0

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