Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Fadura (Getxo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenas Club de Getxo		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.5
	2.78	3.15	2.42
	2.86	3.15	2.66
	3.04	3.16	2.36	Watch
	2.7	2.88	2.4
	2.74	2.89	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (3.17)	3.04 ↓ (3.05)	2.47 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenas Club de Getxo
32.7%

Draw
30.2%

Barakaldo
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

30.4%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

29%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenas Club de Getxo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenas Club de Getxo than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barakaldo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arenas Club de Getxo - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pena A. (G) 21. Sillero J. 4. Alvarez P. 5. Garcia P. 23. Sustatxa A. 22. Mattheus C. 16. Verde A. 8. Zabala M. 17. Navarro S. 2. Vizcay T. 7. Collado U.	13. Campos G. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 18. Arana M. 24. Ropero I. 23. Albizua U. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 15. Castillo I. 14. Munoz I. 19. Galarza A. 21. Pena A.
Substitutes
25. Aragoneses S. (G) 27. Bazaga O. 24. Boriko S. 3. Fernandez Cozar M. 1. Gastesi O. (G) 14. Glazer T. 10. Hidalgo A. 15. Mathieu K. 19. Mutilva C. 11. Troncho A. 9. Vazquez A. 20. Zabaleta E.	17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 8. Huidobro J. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 16. Lopez O. 6. Naveira U. 7. Pedernales I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', de Jesus B. 🟨,
27', Vizcay T. 🟨,
30', Alvarez P. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Zabala M. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Mattheus C. ⚽,
45+9', Ropero I. 🟨,
45+9', Vizcay T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Castillo I. ↓, Sabin ↑,
46', de Jesus B. ↓, Pedernales I. ↑,
46', Mattheus C. ↓, Fernandez Cozar M. ↑,
57', Sabin 🟨,
60', Galarza A. 🟨,
60', Mandiang S. ↓, de Leon J. ↑,
64', Navarro S. ↓, Bazaga O. ↑,
66', Galarza A. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Valino A. ⚽,
70', Collado U. ↓, Boriko S. ↑,
74', Arana M. 🟨,
79', Zabala M. ↓, Hidalgo A. ↑,
79', Sustatxa A. ↓, Glazer T. ↑,
82', Molina E. ↓, Huidobro J. ↑,
88', Pena A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arenas won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Arenas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Barakaldo might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Arenas won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:20. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arenas won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6
20	Arenas Getxo	6	0	2	4	4:14	-10	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arenas Club de Getxo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Osasuna B - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLWW
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.02.26	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Zamora - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Cacereño - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.09.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:1
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
21.01.24	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0
09.09.23	Arenas Club de Getxo - Barakaldo	1:1
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Arenas Club de Getxo - Barakaldo	1:3
13.08.22	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0
28.08.21	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	0:0

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