Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.6	5.25
	1.5	3.9	5.8
	1.49	4.23	6.59
	1.51	4.02	6.49	Watch
	1.56	4.09	5.47	Watch
	1.5	3.9	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.62)	3.96 ↑ (3.7)	5.9 ↑ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
61%

Draw
23.4%

1 Dezembro
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.8%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

23.8%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lusitânia - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - 1 Dezembro (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). 1 Dezembro (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Ricardo M. (G) 28. Mesquita T. 4. Collard D. 14. Valente M. 29. Cerveira T. 88. Teixeira M. 8. Tokinho Doria 12. Arsenio 10. Ribeiro S. 21. Joao Vasco 11. Pereira M.	12. Duarte F. (G) 32. Ramos P. 2. Cesinha 26. Freitas J. 20. Silva R. 5. Sousa A. 19. Valente A. 23. Lisandro Menezes 18. Dias L. 17. Harramiz S. 30. Aguas G.
Substitutes
7. Avto 85. Castro D. 1. Cioletti G. (G) 20. Faria R. 5. Oliveira J. 18. Pereira D. 80. Renato Luis 3. Silverio	11. Batalha R. 25. Bonito D. 3. Ebube 21. Isaac 1. Oliveira G. (G) 99. Pedro Clemente 6. Santos T. 77. Teixeira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Joao Vasco ⚽,
10', 1 - 1, Silva R. ⚽,
18', 2 - 1, Ribeiro S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dias L. ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
58', Silva R. 🟨,
67', Sousa A. ↓, Isaac ↑,
67', Aguas G. ↓, Batalha R. ↑,
70', Joao Vasco ↓, Renato Luis ↑,
70', Ribeiro S. ↓, Avto ↑,
75', Teixeira M. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
79', Renato Luis 🟨,
79', Harramiz S. 🟨,
85', Harramiz S. ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
85', Freitas J. ↓, Cardoso D. ↑,
87', Cesinha 🟨,
88', Arsenio ↓, Castro D. ↑,

Preview

Lusitânia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

1 Dezembro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lusitânia is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLWW
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Amarante - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	1 Dezembro - Fafe	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.25	1 Dezembro - Lusitânia	1:3

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