Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.45	4.4
	1.72	3.55	5.12
	1.71	3.55	4.98	Watch
	1.74	3.48	4.85	Watch
	1.73	3.45	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.8)	3.5 ↑ (3.29)	4.75 ↑ (4.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
53.8%

Draw
26.6%

Amarante
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

27.9%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

27.1%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lusitânia - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cioletti G. (G) 12. Arsenio 85. Castro D. 29. Cerveira T. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 77. Goba Zakpa 6. Martins H. 18. Pereira D. 11. Pereira M. 80. Renato Luis	65. Figueiredo D. (G) 88. Aguiar E. 99. Bright 4. Filipe J. 17. Filipe R. 5. Guedes R. 10. Ka 16. Leandro M. 18. Okoli F. 7. Sousa C. 12. Zangre A.
Substitutes
7. Avto 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 5. Oliveira J. 10. Ribeiro S. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 14. Valente M.	30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 9. Cardoso F. 6. Daniel Alves 80. Dinho 13. Flores R. (G) 8. Helder Pedro 64. Vila D. 70. Zakari B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Zangre A. ⚽, Aguiar E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Guedes R. 🟨,
51', Bright 🟨,
60', Arsenio 🟨,
61', Leandro M. ↓, Vila D. ↑,
61', Aguiar E. ↓, Helder Pedro ↑,
65', Renato Luis 🟨,
68', Renato Luis ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
68', Arsenio ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
77', Pereira D. ↓, Avto ↑,
79', Vila D. ↓, Daniel Alves ↑,
85', Sousa C. ↓, Dinho ↑,
85', Ka ↓, Zakari B. ↑,
89', Cerveira T. ↓, Valente M. ↑,
89', Martins H. ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Joao Vasco ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 1, Ribeiro S. ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 2.

Lusitânia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Amarante is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Lusitânia is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Lusitânia to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 0.8:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Lusitânia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Trofense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Lusitânia - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWW
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
23.02.25	1 Dezembro - Amarante	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Vilaverdense - Amarante	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Amarante - Fafe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	1:0
14.09.24	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
20.05.23	Amarante - Lusitânia	0:0
30.04.23	Lusitânia - Amarante	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.05.21	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1
12.01.20	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1

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