Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV7


	Lusitânia		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.15	2.25
	3.55	3.1	2.31
	2.60	3.11	2.65	Watch
	3.18	3.13	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.6)	3.1 ↓ (3.11)	2.33 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
30%

Draw
30%

Leiria
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

29.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

29.3%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lusitânia's form might have worsened.

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Lusitânia - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Leiria will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leiria (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 28. Mesquita T. (C) 4. Collard D. 3. Josue Sa 16. Rocha L. 8. Tokinho Doria 88. Teixeira M. 11. Pereira M. 27. Fabinho 12. Arsenio 9. Silva J.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 16. Ze Pedro 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 10. van der Gaag J. 41. Daniel Borges 18. Lottin A. 11. Jair da Silva 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C)
Substitutes
74. Braga G. 29. Cerveira T. 20. Do Marcolino F. 21. Joao Vasco 80. Manel 19. Palacios A. 23. Ribeiro M. (G) 5. Silverio 77. Tiago Dias	1. Carrasco S. (G) 20. Gomes B. 17. Lucho Vega 86. Michel D. 21. Pires M. 6. Rodriguez G. 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H.
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Silva J. ⚽, Arsenio (A),
11', 1 - 1, Daniel Borges ⚽, Munoz J. (A),
27', Ze Pedro 🟨,
30', Daniel Borges 🟨,
32', Maga 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Jair da Silva ↓, Santos J. ↑,
63', Fernandez P. ↓, Michel D. ↑,
65', Baro M. 🟨,
67', Fabinho 🟨,
69', Josue Sa ↓, Silverio ↑,
69', Teixeira M. ↓, Tiago Dias ↑,
82', Fabinho ↓, Do Marcolino F. ↑,
82', Silva J. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
82', Daniel Borges ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
82', Lottin A. ↓, Pires M. ↑,
90+1', Mesquita T. ↓, Braga G. ↑,
90+4', van der Gaag J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90+7', Tiago Dias 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 4).

Recent form of Lusitânia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leiria is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Leiria has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
04.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
29.10.25	Lusitânia - Vizela	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Lusitânia - Resende	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.25	Lusitânia - Farense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLWL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
03.11.25	Leiria - Chaves	2:1 ✺
30.10.25	Marítimo - Leiria	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Leiria - Leixões	1:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.06.19	Leiria - Lusitânia	2:0
25.05.19	Lusitânia - Leiria	2:3

Upcoming Matches