Match Info

League One - Round 18

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	LTFC+, Sky Sports+


	Luton Town		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.52	Watch
	2.78	3.45	2.57
	2.45	3.62	2.59	Watch
	2.78	3.5	2.53	Watch
	2.71	3.4	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.45)	3.45 ↓ (3.62)	2.52 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
35.3%

Draw
27.3%

Bolton Wanderers
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

25.8%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.3%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Bolton will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Luton (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 15. Mengi T. 17. Lonwijk N. 3. Naismith K. (C) 16. Odoffin H. 23. Saville G. 8. Walsh L. 33. Bramall C. 22. Fanne L. 19. Brown J. 9. Yates J.	1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 18. Toal E. (C) 6. Johnston G. 25. Conway M. 4. Simons X. 16. Morley A. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 22. Dempsey K. 14. Osei-Tutu J. 48. Burstow M.
Substitutes
7. Alli M. 5. Andersen M. 30. Kodua G. 28. Makosso C. 14. Morris S. 37. Nelson Z. 1. Shea J. (G)	20. Cissoko I. 10. Dalby S. 21. Erhahon E. 24. Forss M. 45. McAtee J. 27. Miller T. (G) 5. Taylor R.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Schumacher S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Dempsey K. ⚽, Osei-Tutu J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Simons X. 🟨,
57', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
61', Dacres-Cogley J. 🟨,
64', Brown J. ↓, Kodua G. ↑,
70', Simons X. 🟨,
74', Burstow M. ↓, Dalby S. ↑,
74', Dempsey K. ↓, Erhahon E. ↑,
79', Cozier-Duberry A. ↓, Forss M. ↑,
80', Osei-Tutu J. ↓, Taylor R. ↑,
82', Fanne L. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
82', Lonwijk N. ↓, Alli M. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Kodua G. ⚽, Alli M. (A),
90+1', Dacres-Cogley J. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Luton is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bolton is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bolton has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bolton: Adeboyejo V. (Knee Injury) Sheehan J. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Clark J. (Inactive) Nakamba M. (Inactive) Walters R. (Groin Injury) Wells N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bolton: Erhahon E. (Inactive) Gale T. (Inactive) McAtee J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Luton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Luton won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Luton Town - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.13%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.07%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
25.11.25	Luton Town - Huddersfield Town	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Barnsley - Luton Town	5:0 ✺
15.11.25	Luton Town - Rotherham United	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Stockport County - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
31.10.25	Luton Town - Forest Green Rovers	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTWW
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
22.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Bolton Wanderers	2:6 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Huddersfield Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
25.10.25	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
16.01.24	Bolton Wanderers - Luton Town	1:2
07.01.24	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:0

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