The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Luton Town 52.6%
Draw 25.5%
Burton Albion 21.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
57.3%
24.4%
18.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.5%
18.1%
24.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)
Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-10.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Luton Town - Burton Albion Predictions
Users Predictions:
Luton Town will win
(11 of 11 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luton Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 25. Jones I. 5. Andersen M. 3. Naismith K. (C) 38. Johnson J. 23. Saville G. 54. Palmer K. 14. Morris S. 18. Clark J. 30. Kodua G. 21. Wells N.
24. Collins B. (G) 2. Godwin-Malife U. (C) 16. Hartridge A. 6. Sibbick T. 15. Lofthouse K. 4. Chauke K. 7. McKiernan J. J. 3. Armer J. 12. Evans G. 9. Beesley J. 10. Shade T.
Substitutes
22. Cole D. 32. Lawrence E. 17. Lonwijk N. 15. Mengi T. 27. Richards J. 1. Shea J. (G) 6. van den Berg D.
29. Adom K. 42. Cannon A. 27. Dudek K. (G) 41. Krubally S. 22. Larsson J. 18. Moon J. 11. Tavares F.
Coaches
Wilshere J.
Bowyer G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Wells N. ⚽, Johnson J. (A),
29', Evans G. 🟨,
36', Palmer K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Palmer K. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
46', Armer J. ↓, Moon J. ↑,
61', Evans G. ↓, Krubally S. ↑,
61', McKiernan J. J. ↓, Cannon A. ↑,
69', Wells N. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
70', Morris S. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
74', Lofthouse K. 🟨,
80', Shade T. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
80', Sibbick T. ↓, Tavares F. ↑,
82', Keeley J. 🟨,
86', Kodua G. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
89', Cannon A. 🟨,
89', van den Berg D. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Tavares F. ⚽, Godwin-Malife U. (A),
Preview
One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 9 and 19).
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Burton has had a series of home games.
In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Knee Injury)
Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Walsh L.
(Inactive)
There will not play in Burton: Jones J.
(Foot Injury)
Webster C.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C.
(Inactive)
Lawrence E.
(Inactive)
Odoffin H.
(Inactive)
Sandal S.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Burton: Delap F.
(Inactive)
Revan S.
(Injury)
Williams D.
(Inactive)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
Outrights of English League One for now
Luton: 6.34% Burton: 0.63%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
10
Burton
10
3
3
4
14:16
-2
12
13
Luton
8
3
2
3
16:15
1
11
Last Results with these Odds
Burton Albion - the odds 5 are the expected chance of winning is 18.32%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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Keeley J. (G) 
Jones I. 
Andersen M. 
Naismith K. (C) 
Johnson J. 
Saville G. 
Palmer K. 
Wells N. 
Sibbick T. 
Chauke K. 
Shade T. 
Lonwijk N. 
Dudek K. (G) 
Larsson J. 
Tavares F. 
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