What is the expert prediction for Lyon vs PAOK?

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Lyon vs PAOK Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, January 29, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: De Burgos R. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN Connect
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 2
South-america	ESPN 4 South
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Lyon		PAOK

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	3
	1.68	4	4.8
	2.35	3.6	3
	2.33	3.59	3.06
	2.32	3.58	2.97	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3
	2.38	3.6	3.15
	2.3	3.4	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.62)	3.57 ↓ (4.13)	3.26 ↓ (5.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
43.2%

Draw
27.1%

PAOK
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

23.3%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

23.1%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lyon's form might have worsened.

PAOK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting PAOK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lyon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for PAOK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41%	9.8%	49.2%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 25 - 41%). PAOK will win (votes: 30 - 49.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 9.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PAOK: 36.7% – 61.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 10 - 33.3%). PAOK (votes: 13 - 43.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - PAOK (1.64) (votes: 7 - 77.8%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - PAOK (2.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - PAOK (2.21) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 10 - 83.3%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 12 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 56 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 15 - 26.8%). PAOK (votes: 34 - 60.7%). Tie (votes: 7 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Descamps R. (G) 22. Mata C. 21. Kluivert R. 19. Niakhate M. (C) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 39. de Carvalho M. 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K. 23. Morton T. 17. Moreira A. 45. Himbert R.	99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. R. 27. Ozdoev M. 8. Meite S. 14. Zivkovic A. (C) 65. Konstantelias G. 11. Taison 7. Giakoumakis G.
Substitutes
16. Abner Vinicius 50. Diarra L. (G) 32. Gomes A. 46. Goncalves T. 1. Greif D. (G) 84. Hamdani A. 67. Mbatshi Mukuba P. 29. Molebe E. 6. Tessmann T.	22. Bianco A. 2. Camara M. 9. Chalov F. 52. Chatsidis D. 77. Despodov K. 6. Lovren D. 56. Mythou A. 1. Pavlenka J. (G) 10. Pelkas D. 23. Sastre J. 32. Taylor G. 4. Vogliacco A.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Lucescu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Giakoumakis G. ⚽, Zivkovic A. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Himbert R. ⚽, Moreira A. (A),
36', Konstantelias G. 🟨,
41', Konstantelias G. 🟨,
45+1', Morton T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Morton T. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
55', 2 - 1, Merah K. ⚽, Moreira A. (A),
66', 2 - 2, Meite S. ⚽, Zivkovic A. (A),
69', Merah K. ↓, Goncalves T. ↑,
69', Kluivert R. ↓, Abner Vinicius ↑,
77', Giakoumakis G. 🟨,
83', Lucescu R. 🟥,
83', Karabec A. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Taison ↓, Despodov K. ↑,
87', Giakoumakis G. ↓, Mythou A. ↑,
87', de Carvalho M. ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
87', Moreira A. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Karabec A. ⚽, Hamdani A. (A),
90+1', Ozdoev M. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Gomes A. ⚽, Karabec A. (A),

Preview

Lyon is Qualified for Europa League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lyon has had a series of away games.

Lyon could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Lyon: Endrick (Inactive) Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Ghezzal R. (Muscle Injury) Hateboer H. (Inactive) Mangala O. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Knock) Tagliafico N. (Ankle Injury) Tolisso C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in PAOK: Balde M. (Inactive) Gugeshashvili L. (Inactive) Ivanusec L. (Toe Injury) Jeremejeff A. (Inactive) Murg T. (Inactive) Zafeiris C. (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
25.01.26	Metz - Lyon	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Young Boys - Lyon	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.01.26	Lyon - Brest	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Monaco - Lyon	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WWWWW
- PAOK FC
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	PAOK - Betis	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
18.01.26	PAOK - OFI	3:0 ✺
Greek Cup
14.01.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	0:2 ✺
Greek Super League
10.01.26	Panetolikos - PAOK	0:3 ✺
Greek Cup
06.01.26	PAOK - Atromitos Athens	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWWW

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