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Monaco vs Lyon Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, January 03, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 17

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now
Albania	SuperSport 4
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, DAZN France, Free, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Israel	5 GOLD Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 3
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Monaco		Lyon

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.75	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.7	3.25
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	2	4	3.61
	2.1	3.79	3.2	Watch
	2	3.5	3.25
	2.15	3.87	3.44	Watch
	2.1	3.75	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.92)	3.76 ↓ (4.02)	3.34 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
46.1%

Draw
25.4%

Lyon
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

23.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

24.4%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 12 - 50%). Lyon will win (votes: 6 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 30% – 70%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Lyon (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Lyon (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Lyon (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 22. Salisu M. 5. Kehrer T. (C) 13. Mawissa C. 4. Teze J. 28. Coulibaly M. 10. Golovin A. 12. Caio Henrique 11. Akliouche M. 9. Balogun F. 14. Biereth M.	1. Greif D. (G) 22. Mata C. 21. Kluivert R. 3. Tagliafico N. 98. Maitland-Niles A. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 23. Morton T. 16. Abner Vinicius 44. Merah K. 10. Sulc P. 17. Moreira A.
Substitutes
23. Bamba A. 29. Brunner P. 3. Dier E. 17. Idumbo S. 19. Ilenikhena G. 16. Kohn P. (G) 21. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 2. Toure I.	41. Barisic T. 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 33. Hateboer H. 7. Karabec A. 5. Mangala O. 20. Satriano M. 6. Tessmann T.
Coaches
Pocognoli S.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Kehrer T. 🟨,
12', Hradecky L. ↓, Kohn P. ↑,
35', Mata C. 🟨,
36', Mawissa C. ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Sulc P. ⚽, Tagliafico N. (A),
45+3', 1 - 1, Coulibaly M. ⚽, Balogun F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Pocognoli S. 🟨,
57', 1 - 2, Sulc P. ⚽, Maitland-Niles A. (A),
66', Merah K. ↓, Tessmann T. ↑,
70', Kluivert R. 🟨,
70', Tolisso C. 🟨,
71', Coulibaly M. 🟥,
77', Biereth M. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
77', Golovin A. ↓, Idumbo S. ↑,
79', Balogun F. 🟨,
79', 1 - 3, Abner Vinicius ⚽, Tagliafico N. (A),
81', Sulc P. ↓, Karabec A. ↑,
81', Abner Vinicius ↓, Mangala O. ↑,
90+3', Tolisso C. ↓, Satriano M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 2.

Recent performances by Monaco have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lyon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Lyon has had a series of home games.

Monaco is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Camara L. (International duty) Diatta K. (International duty) Fati A. (Muscle Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Pogba P. (Calf Injury) Zakaria D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lyon: Endrick (Inactive) Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Niakhate M. (International duty) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 28:35. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).

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Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 11.46% Lyon: 6.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	3	3	0	0	5:1	4	9
3	Lyon	3	2	1	0	6:2	4	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Auxerre - Monaco	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Monaco - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.12.25	Brest - Monaco	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WLWLW
- Olympique Lyon
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Lyon - Saint-Cyr Collonges	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lyon - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Lyon - Go Ahead Eagles	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
07.12.25	Lorient - Lyon	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Lyon - Nantes	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.05.25	Monaco - Lyon	2:0
24.08.24	Lyon - Monaco	0:2
28.04.24	Lyon - Monaco	3:2
15.12.23	Monaco - Lyon	0:1
19.05.23	Lyon - Monaco	3:1
11.09.22	Monaco - Lyon	2:1
05.02.22	Monaco - Lyon	2:0

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