Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
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France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
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World	Onefootball


	Metz		Lyon

	1	X	2
	5	3.8	1.67	Watch
	4.5	3.9	1.73
	5.35	3.9	1.65	Watch
	5.38	3.96	1.68
	5.25	3.94	1.66	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.65
	5.53	4.02	1.71	Watch
	5	4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.1 ↑ (4.48)	3.9 ↓ (4.04)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
18.7%

Draw
24.4%

Lyon
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

23.4%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

22.8%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Lyon aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	6.1%	87.8%

Metz - Lyon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Metz (4.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Lyon (2.18) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Lyon (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (43 of 49 users predict this - 87.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 96.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Lyon (votes: 21 - 91.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 2. Colin M. 8. Traore B. 20. Deminguet J. 12. Toure A. 10. Hein G. (C) 30. Diallo H. 7. Tsitaishvili G.	1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 22. Mata C. 21. Kluivert R. 33. Hateboer H. 6. Tessmann T. 23. Morton T. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 44. Merah K. 9. Endrick 17. Moreira A.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 40. Ba O. (G) 11. Mbaye M. 4. Mboula U. 25. Melieres C. 33. Munongo B. 23. Sane I. 21. Stambouli B.	39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 32. Gomes A. 46. Goncalves T. 34. Hamdani A. 45. Himbert R. 7. Karabec A. 19. Niakhate M. 10. Sulc P.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
11', 0 - 1, Endrick ⚽, Tolisso C. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Kluivert R. ⚽, Merah K. (A),
32', 0 - 3, Morton T. ⚽,
34', 1 - 3, Kouao K. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 4, Endrick ⚽, Morton T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tolisso C. ↓, Niakhate M. ↑,
62', Toure A. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
63', Yegbe T. ↓, Mboula U. ↑,
63', Deminguet J. ↓, Munongo B. ↑,
64', 2 - 4, Diallo H. ⚽, Kouao K. (A),
72', Kouao K. 🟨,
74', Merah K. ↓, de Carvalho M. ↑,
78', Colin M. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
87', 2 - 5, Endrick (Penalty Awarded),
88', Hein G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
90+2', Endrick ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
90+3', Moreira A. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.

Metz is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lyon is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lyon is the team to beat.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Sy P. (Concussion)

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lyon: Abner Vinicius (Injury) Ghezzal R. (Muscle Injury) Tagliafico N. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Metz won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 11:36. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:18. (average 1:2.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 4.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10:2	8	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
18.01.26	Strasbourg - Metz	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Metz - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Lorient - Metz	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Biesheim - Metz	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Metz - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTWL
- Olympique Lyon
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Young Boys - Lyon	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.01.26	Lyon - Brest	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Lille - Lyon	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Monaco - Lyon	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Lyon - Saint-Cyr Collonges	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
23.08.25	Lyon - Metz	3:0
23.02.24	Metz - Lyon	1:2
05.11.23	Lyon - Metz	1:1
Coupe De France
07.01.23	Lyon - Metz	2:1
French Ligue 1
08.05.22	Metz - Lyon	3:2
22.12.21	Lyon - Metz	1:1
17.01.21	Lyon - Metz	0:1

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