Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 17

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Romano (Mérida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Mérida AD		Athletic Bilbao B

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	2.8
	2.35	3.15	2.88
	2.38	3.22	2.99
	2.36	3.27	2.94	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.88
	2.3	3.08	2.95
	2.28	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.1)	3.12 ↓ (3.41)	2.9 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mérida AD
39.3%

Draw
29.3%

Athletic Bilbao B
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.2%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

26.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mérida AD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mérida AD will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Csenterics A. (G) 19. Pipe (C) 4. Pareja L. 15. Martinez G. 23. Verges E. 21. Beneit R. 8. Solar M. 16. Capitas M. 11. Areso J. 9. Garcia A. 18. Dibrani B.	13. Santos M. (G) 15. Alday I. 4. Dunabeitia A. (C) 3. De Luis J. 12. Barandalla M. 8. Lete E. 18. Garcia E. 6. Gibelalde M. 23. Gift E. 9. Sanz I. 22. Perez A.
Substitutes
14. Artola J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 7. Chiqui 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 3. Lancho J. 6. Miki 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.	30. Alboniga-Menor G. 11. Bujan E. 5. Ebro Cortina E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 17. Huestamendia P. 2. Irurita X. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 19. Louis-Jean J. 20. Vizcay T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
15', Dunabeitia A. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Perez A. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Sanz I. ⚽, Perez A. (A),
29', 1 - 2, Capitas M. ⚽, Areso J. (A),
44', 2 - 2, Areso J. ⚽,
45+1', Lete E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pareja L. ↓, Lancho J. ↑,
66', Pipe ↓, Chiqui ↑,
73', Perez A. ↓, Huestamendia P. ↑,
73', Gift E. ↓, Bujan E. ↑,
76', Areso J. 🟨,
82', 2 - 3, Garcia E. ⚽,
83', Martinez G. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
86', Capitas M. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
86', Areso J. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
90', Sanz I. ↓, Vizcay T. ↑,
90', Barandalla M. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 and 9)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Mérida AD - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.17%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Athletic Bilbao B - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Mérida AD - Ourense CF	3:2 ✺
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Pontevedra - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTWT
- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.12.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Athletic Bilbao B	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
16.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWWW

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