Match Info

A-League - Round 26

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Campbelltown Stadium (Sydney)

Referee: Keevers L. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport Premier League
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 7
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Macarthur FC		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.9	2.5	Watch
	2.42	3.7	2.58
	2.47	3.95	2.71
	2.38	3.96	2.67	Watch
	2.38	3.7	2.5
	2.44	3.89	2.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (1.98)	3.85 ↓ (4.2)	2.61 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Macarthur FC
39.3%

Draw
24.5%

Wellington Phoenix
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

22.6%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

23.3%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Macarthur FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Macarthur FC's form might have worsened.

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Wellington Phoenix's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Macarthur FC than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Macarthur FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wellington Phoenix, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Macarthur FC - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Macarthur will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Wellington will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wellington: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Wellington (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robinson A. (G) 32. McKay W. 3. Da Silva D. (C) 5. Jurman M. 25. Talbot C. 17. Randazzo O. 26. Brattan L. 8. Vickery L. 10. Caceres A. 24. Bosnjak D. 15. Duke M.	1. Oluwayemi J. (G) 6. Payne T. 28. Tuiloma B. 15. Hughes I. 18. Kelly-Heald L. 8. Retre P. 25. Nagasawa K. (C) 16. Kartum S. 5. Conchie F. 3. Piper C. 7. Eze I.
Substitutes
12. Kurto F. (G) 11. Oliveira B. 35. Oliveira H. 19. Politidis H. 22. Rose L. 28. Sawyer H. 6. Uskok T.	11. Armiento C. 29. Brooke-Smith L. 12. Edwards D. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 20. Najjarine R. 27. Sheridan M. 9. Singh S.
Coaches
Sterjovski M.	Greenacre C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Jurman M. ⚽,
22', 2 - 0, Bosnjak D. ⚽,
34', 3 - 0, Brattan L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Conchie F. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
46', Kartum S. ↓, Najjarine R. ↑,
47', Nagasawa K. 🟨,
51', Bosnjak D. 🟨,
63', Retre P. 🟨,
71', Vickery L. ↓, Oliveira B. ↑,
71', Nagasawa K. ↓, Singh S. ↑,
71', Payne T. ↓, Sheridan M. ↑,
78', Duke M. ↓, Sawyer H. ↑,
78', Bosnjak D. ↓, Oliveira H. ↑,
80', 4 - 0, Oliveira B. ⚽, Oliveira H. (A),
82', Talbot C. ↓, Politidis H. ↑,
83', Da Silva D. ↓, Uskok T. ↑,
89', Jurman M. 🟨,
90', Kelly-Heald L. ↓, Edwards D. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 2.

In recent matches, Macarthur has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Wellington is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Macarthur has had a series of away games.

Macarthur could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Macarthur: Ji Dong-Won (Ankle Injury) Popovic K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Wellington: Rufer A. (Yellow Cards) Singh S. (Inactive) Walker N. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Macarthur won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:25. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Macarthur won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Macarthur FC: 8.65% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Macarthur FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Macarthur FC
Australian A-League
19.04.26	Adelaide United - Macarthur FC	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Perth Glory - Macarthur FC	3:1 ✺
02.04.26	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	Auckland FC - Macarthur FC	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Melbourne Victory - Macarthur FC	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LLWWL
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
18.04.26	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Perth Glory	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
21.11.25	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	0:1
20.01.25	Macarthur FC - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
13.12.24	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	1:2
27.04.24	Wellington Phoenix - Macarthur FC	3:0
18.02.24	Macarthur FC - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
18.12.23	Macarthur FC - Wellington Phoenix	0:3
29.04.23	Macarthur FC - Wellington Phoenix	0:1

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