Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Portimonense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.9
	2.15	3.1	2.95
	2.3	3.1	3.2
	2.35	3.22	3.3
	2.31	3.15	3.19	Watch
	2.3	3	3
	2.28	3.17	3.17	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.46)	3.13 ↓ (3.18)	3.11 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
40.3%

Draw
29.8%

Mafra
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

29.4%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

29.1%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Portimonense - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Portimonense will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Mafra will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portimonense: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 21. Heitor 33. Grolli D. 19. John K. 80. Keffel 27. Acquah B. 50. Varela F. 8. Geovane 28. Duran C. 9. Monteiro T. 11. Paulo V. (C)	1. Fraisl M. (G) 5. Beni D. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 16. Djabi A. 17. Kolawole J. 9. Nibe A. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.
Substitutes
92. Alegria J. 43. Alemao 99. Benedict E. 42. Diaby M. 30. Kim Yong-Hak 22. Omrani S. 29. Ruan 98. Tear J. P. (G) 24. Tony	66. Capitao D. 10. Fale M. 80. Goncalves V. 8. Lucas Gabriel 20. Maiga Y. 35. Monteiro V. 6. Pereira P. 95. Rochez B. 30. Ugboh M. (G)
Coaches
Pessoa R.	Ferreira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Acquah B. ⚽,
45', Varela F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Duran C. 🟨,
63', Kolawole J. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
63', Nibe A. ↓, Lucas Gabriel ↑,
63', Iheanacho S. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
63', Duran C. ↓, Ruan ↑,
68', Guilherme 🟨,
70', 2 - 0, Monteiro T. ⚽,
73', Varela F. ↓, Diaby M. ↑,
74', Monteiro T. ↓, Alegria J. ↑,
76', Beni D. 🟨,
85', Acquah B. ↓, Alemao ↑,
87', Lucas Gabriel 🟨,
87', Beni D. ↓, Capitao D. ↑,
87', Djabi A. ↓, Maiga Y. ↑,
90+2', Rossi R. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Portimonense is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mafra is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Portimonense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Portimonense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Portimonense - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.25	Leiria - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Portimonense - Felgueiras	3:2 ✺
12.01.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	Portimonense - Alverca	1:0 ✺
21.12.24	Portimonense - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWWWT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
26.01.25	Mafra - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Torreense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.12.24	Mafra - Feirense	0:0 ✺
20.12.24	Leixões - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
25.08.24	Mafra - Portimonense	2:2
Taça de Portugal
13.01.22	Portimonense - Mafra	2:4
Portuguese Liga 2
31.01.16	Mafra - Portimonense	0:0
06.09.15	Portimonense - Mafra	2:0

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