Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV6


	Chaves		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.45
	2.72	3.05	2.58
	2.68	3.23	2.63
	2.8	2.75	2.5
	2.77	2.98	2.61
	2.75	2.85	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.5)	2.98 ↑ (2.75)	2.58 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
33.7%

Draw
30.8%

Marítimo
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

32.8%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

33.4%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Chaves - Marítimo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Marítimo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Chaves (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 25%). Marítimo (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Gudzulic M. (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 22. Muscat Z. 15. Carraca 8. Pinho P. 97. Joao Teixeira (C) 19. Tiago Almeida 27. Esajas R. 17. Roberto 77. Reinaldo	12. Samu (G) 2. Igor Juliao 44. Correia R. 5. Madsen N. 23. Henrique P. 21. Bouzaidi S. 10. Tejon M. 8. Cruz M. 14. Raphael Guzzo 18. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel
Substitutes
34. Alves R. 44. Bikoro F. 71. Joao Pedro 20. Ktatau 10. Pina R. 3. Romero A. 29. Tounkara M. 1. Vozinha (G) 21. Wellington Carvalho	6. Andrade R. 90. Borukov P. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 25. Freitas A. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 98. Ibrahima 1. Tabuaco G. (G) 79. Tavares M. 17. Xavi Grande
Coaches
Martins F.	Moita M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Joao Teixeira ⚽, Esajas R. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Correia R. ⚽,
26', Madsen N. 🟨,
27', 2 - 1, Simoes T. ⚽,
31', Joao Teixeira 🟨,
37', Roberto 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Cruz M. 🟨,
59', Cruz M. ↓, Borukov P. ↑,
64', Muscat Z. 🟨,
70', Joao Teixeira ↓, Ktatau ↑,
75', 2 - 2, Tejon M. ⚽,
76', Henrique P. ↓, Freitas A. ↑,
77', Bouzaidi S. ↓, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↑,
79', Esajas R. ↓, Wellington Carvalho ↑,
89', Danilovic V. ↓, Ibrahima ↑,
89', Reinaldo ↓, Pina R. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 3, Freitas A. ⚽, Ibrahima (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 3.

Chaves is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Marítimo is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.25	Chaves - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Chaves - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Torreense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWT
- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Leixões - Marítimo	1:4 ✺
16.12.25	Marítimo - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Marítimo - Torreense	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Portimonense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.25	Chaves - Marítimo	1:1
25.08.24	Marítimo - Chaves	1:1
Liga Portugal
05.02.23	Chaves - Marítimo	2:1
15.08.22	Marítimo - Chaves	1:2
02.02.19	Chaves - Marítimo	1:0
24.08.18	Marítimo - Chaves	2:1
06.05.18	Chaves - Marítimo	4:1

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