Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 32

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)


	Mafra		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	2.8
	2.3	3.1	2.75
	2.41	3.2	2.95
	2.58	3.1	3.21
	2.5	2.93	3.09	Watch
	2.4	3	2.88
	2.51	2.98	3.06	Watch
	2.41	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.69)	3.09 ↓ (3.28)	2.96 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
38.3%

Draw
30.2%

Leixões
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.2%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

27.2%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leixões might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mafra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leixões could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Mafra - Leixões Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mafra will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Leixões will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Leixões (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Leixões (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Leixões (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ugboh M. (G) 55. Pata I. 66. Capitao D. 24. Camara M. 14. Alves K. 80. Goncalves V. (C) 16. Djabi A. 17. Kolawole J. 7. Matos R. 90. Etim F. 95. Rochez B.	24. Figueira Daniel (G) 12. Jean Felipe 3. Rafael Santos 2. Thiago Balieiro 23. Henrique Gelain 27. Fabinho (C) 13. Evrard Zag 11. Andre 7. Werton 29. Bica 21. Jaiminho
Substitutes
60. Barros G. 3. Chriso 10. Fale M. 19. Iheanacho S. 22. Lemos F. (G) 8. Lucas Gabriel 35. Monteiro V. 23. Serra S. 39. Souza A.	61. Amorim J. 14. Basto H. 77. Ndo R. 10. Paulite 9. Rafael Martins 30. Seruca A. 15. Simaozinho 16. Simoes A. 51. Stefanovic I. (G)
Coaches
Alves P.	Mota J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Werton ⚽, Bica (A),
7', 1 - 1, Etim F. ⚽, Matos R. (A),
33', Fabinho 🟨,
45', 1 - 2, Jaiminho ⚽, Werton (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Matos R. ↓, Lucas Gabriel ↑,
67', Evrard Zag ↓, Seruca A. ↑,
67', Jaiminho ↓, Ndo R. ↑,
70', Pata I. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
71', Djabi A. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
77', Andre ↓, Rafael Martins ↑,
77', Bica ↓, Simoes A. ↑,
87', Werton ↓, Paulite ↑,
90+1', Capitao D. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
90+1', Goncalves V. ↓, Chriso ↑,
90+4', Paulite 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mafra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.25	Benfica B - Mafra	5:0 ✺
20.04.25	Marítimo - Mafra	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Mafra - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
06.04.25	Académico de Viseu - Mafra	3:1 ✺
31.03.25	Mafra - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLW
- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
27.04.25	Leixões - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
18.04.25	Felgueiras - Leixões	4:0 ✺
12.04.25	Leixões - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Marítimo - Leixões	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Leixões - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.24	Leixões - Mafra	2:1
17.03.24	Leixões - Mafra	1:1
04.11.23	Mafra - Leixões	0:1
30.04.23	Leixões - Mafra	0:2
14.11.22	Mafra - Leixões	1:1
07.05.22	Mafra - Leixões	0:2
02.02.22	Leixões - Mafra	2:0

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