Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 9

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Mainz		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	3.9	Watch
	1.9	3.95	3.7	Watch
	2	3.95	3.46
	1.97	3.91	3.47	Watch
	1.96	3.83	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (1.97)	3.87 ↓ (3.91)	3.67 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
49.3%

Draw
24.7%

Werder Bremen
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

24.3%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

24.3%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.5%	0%	59.5%

Mainz - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 15 - 40.5%). Werder will win (votes: 22 - 59.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 43.7% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Werder (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Werder (2.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Werder (2.02) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Werder (3.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.06) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Werder (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 15. Maloney L. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 5. Pieper A. 31. Coulibaly K. 32. Friedl M. (C) 6. Stage J. 14. Lynen S. 17. Grull M. 20. Schmid R. 7. Mbangula S. 44. Boniface V.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 21. da Costa D. 24. Kawasaki S. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.	10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 11. Njinmah J. 18. Puertas C. 23. Schmidt I. 4. Stark N. 9. Topp K.
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Steffen H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Widmer S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
45', Friedl M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mbangula S. ↓, Puertas C. ↑,
59', Coulibaly K. 🟨,
64', Boniface V. ↓, Topp K. ↑,
64', Grull M. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
69', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
77', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
77', Mwene P. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
81', Coulibaly K. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Stage J. ⚽,
88', Topp K. 🟨,
89', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
89', Nebel P. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
90+2', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
90+2', Schmid R. ↓, Stark N. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

Mainz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Werder has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Werder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Illness)

There will not play in Werder: Agu F. (Ankle Injury) Deman O. (Ankle Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Stuttgart - Mainz	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
24.10.25	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Heidenheim - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	4:0 ✺
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
31.01.25	Werder Bremen - Mainz	1:0
15.09.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:2
03.02.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	0:1
02.09.23	Werder Bremen - Mainz	4:0
08.04.23	Mainz - Werder Bremen	2:2
15.10.22	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2
21.04.21	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:1

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