Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	2	4	3.3
	2.00	4.00	3.25
	2.05	4	3.35
	2.06	4.19	3.34
	2.08	4.14	3.24	Watch
	2.02	4.1	3.25
	2.06	4.21	3.43
	2	4	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.28)	4.08 ↑ (3.97)	3.31 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
47.3%

Draw
23.6%

Paris Saint-Germain
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

23.9%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

23.2%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester City's performance.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.3%	21.2%	11.5%

Manchester City - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 35 - 67.3%). PSG will win (votes: 6 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 21.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 54.5% – 80.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 3 - 50%). PSG (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.37) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Man City (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 4 - 57.1%). PSG (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 3.

Man City is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

PSG shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Man City may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Man City holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for PSG: Longoni A. (Injury) Mayulu S. (Groin Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Man City has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:10 (averaging 1.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Man City against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 5:1 goals (averaging 1.7:0.3 per game).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.18% Manchester City: 7.84%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3
9	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
11.10.26	Liverpool - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	Manchester City - Sunderland	5:3 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.26	Manchester City - Norwich City	5:0 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.26	Manchester United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Porto - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
10.10.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Le Mans	3:1 ✺
20.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Slovan Bratislava	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Manchester City	4:2
24.11.21	Manchester City - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1
28.09.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Manchester City	2:0
04.05.21	Manchester City - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0
28.04.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Manchester City	1:2
12.04.16	Manchester City - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
06.04.16	Paris Saint-Germain - Manchester City	2:2

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