Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Mara Sugar		APS Bomet

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.05	3.85
	1.93	3.15	3.9	Watch
	1.96	3.04	3.81
	2.2	2.62	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.95)	2.97 ↓ (3.11)	3.74 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mara Sugar
45.2%

Draw
30.5%

APS Bomet
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

29.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

28.2%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mara Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

APS Bomet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for APS Bomet than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Mara Sugar - APS Bomet Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League).

Mara Sugar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

APS Bomet is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mara Sugar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	APS Bomet	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Mara Sugar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
14.03.26	Bandari - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Mara Sugar - Sofapaka	3:1 ✺
26.02.26	Bidco United - Mara Sugar	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Mara Sugar - Ulinzi Stars	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Mara Sugar	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWTWT
- APS Bomet FC
Kenyan Premier League
14.03.26	APS Bomet - Bidco United	1:1 ✺
02.03.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - APS Bomet	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	APS Bomet - Kariobangi Sharks	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Police FC - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	APS Bomet - Gor Mahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
10.01.26	APS Bomet - Mara Sugar	1:1
Kenyan Super League
13.07.22	APS Bomet - Mara Sugar	1:0

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