Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA DO NORDESTE - ROUND 8

Date: 27 March 2024, Wednesday


	Maranhão		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.8
	4.2	3.4	1.75	Watch
	4.37	3.4	1.8
	4.37	3.4	1.8
	4.2	3.4	1.75
	4.21	3.45	1.76	Watch
	3.95	3.45	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.19 ↑ (3.49)	3.41 ↑ (3.3)	1.78 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maranhão
21.8%

Draw
26.8%

Fortaleza
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

27.6%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

26.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maranhão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fortaleza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Maranhão - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Jean (G) 18. Adeilson Maranhao 16. Andre Radija 5. Cavi 29. Felipe Cruz 2. Franklin 4. Maicon 3. Pedro Gustavo 7. Ronald Camarao 8. Vander 10. Vinicius Barata	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 19. Britez E. 25. Cardona T. 13. Kuscevic B. 88. Lucas Sasha 9. Lucero J. 11. Marinho 21. Moises 7. Pochettino T. 16. Rossetto M. 36. Thauan Lara
Substitutes
11. Alison 17. Capote 12. Caue (G) 9. Clessione 26. David Lopes 6. Hugo Leonardo 20. Kessinho M. 21. Oliveira dos Santos M. A. 15. Pedro Guilherme 19. Rafael Teixeira 14. Sousa D. 22. Yann	10. Calebe 20. Dudu 33. Escobar G. 35. Hercules 37. Kauan 39. Machuca I. 32. Pedro Rocha 23. Santos (G) 91. Thiago Galhardo 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Moises ⚽,
25', Andre Radija 🟨,
34', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Lucero J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Pochettino T. ↓, Hercules ↑,
46', Rossetto M. ↓, Kauan ↑,
51', Britez E. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Felipe Cruz ⚽,
56', Pedro Gustavo 🟨,
61', Vander 🟨,
66', Adeilson Maranhao ↓, Clessione ↑,
68', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
69', 2 - 2, Vinicius Barata ⚽,
73', Marinho ↓, Calebe ↑,
77', Felipe Cruz 🟨,
77', Felipe Cruz ↓, Alison ↑,
77', Lucero J. ↓, Thiago Galhardo ↑,
79', Thiago Galhardo 🟨,
82', Thauan Lara ↓, Dudu ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Clessione ⚽,
84', Clessione 🟨,
84', Franklin ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
85', Ronald Camarao ↓, Kessinho M. ↑,
86', Franklin 🟨,
88', Jean 🟨,
90+8', Cardona T. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Maranhão is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fortaleza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortaleza have a series of home games.

Fortaleza will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
24.03.24	Bahia - Maranhão	1:0 ✺
21.03.24	Itabaiana - Maranhão	3:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
16.03.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	2:2 ✺
10.03.24	Maranhão - Cordino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.24	Maranhão - Treze	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWTWW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
23.03.24	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
20.03.24	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
17.03.24	Fortaleza - Maracanã	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.03.24	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
10.03.24	Maracanã - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWWT

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