Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada (San Marcos)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	Claro Sports 2 Latin America, ViX Latin America


	Marquense		Aurora

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	3.9
	1.85	3.25	3.85
	1.83	3.37	4.42
	1.82	3.44	4.36	Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.8
	1.91	3.43	3.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.92)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	4.04 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marquense
49.6%

Draw
27.7%

Aurora
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

28%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

30.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Aurora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marquense than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Marquense - Aurora Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Colli J. (G) 80. Amaya W. 5. Cano J. 29. Casas D. 8. Escobar M. 13. Estrada C. 79. Linton O. 11. Navarro A. 99. Rodas M. 2. Vasquez E. 53. Villalobos J.	22. Sanchez L. (G) 17. Bajan D. 49. Campos G. 25. Diaz A. 6. Garcia A. 11. Ibarguen E. 5. Lemus J. 10. Lovato N. 9. Ruiz D. 30. Soriano B. 20. Vivas J.
Substitutes
7. Ceballos M. . de Leon C. 20. Elington E. 18. Escobar J. . Fuentes F. 19. Joj J. . Mencia R. 52. Sosa M. (G)	. Almaraz E. 23. Alvarez J. 27. Arevalo J. 53. Hernandez Lainfiesta M. S. . Morales Aguilar A. 1. Navas D. (G) 3. Soriano J. 28. Ticuru J. 31. Urias V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Cano J. 🟨,
38', Campos G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cano J. ↓, Joj J. ↑,
46', Campos G. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
59', Vivas J. 🟥,
59', Amaya W. 🟥,
70', 🟨,
73', Navarro A. ↓, Ceballos M. ↑,
73', Escobar M. ↓, Mencia R. ↑,
79', Villalobos J. ↓, Elington E. ↑,
79', Ibarguen E. ↓, Urias V. ↑,
79', Ruiz D. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
80', Sanchez L. 🟨,
84', Ceballos M. 🟨,
84', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', Gonzalez L. ↓, Soriano J. ↑,
90+3', Lovato N. ↓, Arevalo J. ↑,

Preview

Marquense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Aurora has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Marquense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marquense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Marquense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Marquense	12	6	1	5	13:15	-2	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marquense
Guatemala Liga Nacional
22.02.26	Mictlán - Marquense	2:1 ✺
19.02.26	Marquense - Deportivo Mixco	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Xelajú - Marquense	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Comunicaciones - Marquense	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Marquense - Antigua GFC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLLT
- Aurora FC
Guatemala Liga Nacional
22.02.26	Aurora - Comunicaciones	2:0 ✺
18.02.26	Antigua GFC - Aurora	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Aurora - Cobán Imperial	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Deportivo Achuapa - Aurora	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Aurora - Malacateco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
12.10.25	Marquense - Aurora	1:1
03.08.25	Aurora - Marquense	1:1

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