Match Info

Premier League - Round 26

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Mathare United		Police FC

	1	X	2
	3.85	2.92	1.98
	3.68	2.86	2.04
	3.83	2.9	2.05	Watch
	3.75	2.75	2
	4.23	2.99	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (3.64)	2.88 ↓ (2.89)	2.01 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathare United
23.4%

Draw
31.4%

Police FC
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

31.7%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

30.8%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathare United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Police FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Mathare United - Police FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Police will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 1.

Mathare United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Police is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Police might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mathare United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.7:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Police FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Police FC - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.18%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
04.04.26	Kakamega Homeboyz - Mathare United	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Muranga Seal - Mathare United	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Mathare United - AFC Leopards	4:1 ✺
28.02.26	Gor Mahia - Mathare United	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mathare United - Shabana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTWLL
- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
03.04.26	Police FC - Tusker	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Police FC - Kenya CB	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Posta Rangers - Police FC	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Police FC - Bandari	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Sofapaka - Police FC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0
20.02.25	Mathare United - Police FC	1:0
23.10.24	Police FC - Mathare United	2:0
14.05.23	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0
01.02.23	Mathare United - Police FC	0:5
15.05.22	Police FC - Mathare United	Canceled
15.01.22	Mathare United - Police FC	1:2

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