Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Police FC		Tusker

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.78	3.05
	2.38	2.73	3.13
	2.42	2.71	3.21	Watch
	2.38	2.6	3.1
	2.35	2.77	3.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.14)	2.72 ↓ (2.9)	3.13 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Police FC
38%

Draw
33.2%

Tusker
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

31.5%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

30.6%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Police FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Police FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Police FC - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Police won 1.

Police is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tusker's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Police is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Police won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Police won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Police FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
21.03.26	Police FC - Kenya CB	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Posta Rangers - Police FC	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Police FC - Bandari	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Sofapaka - Police FC	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Police FC - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWT
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
22.03.26	AFC Leopards - Tusker	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Tusker - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Tusker - Muranga Seal	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Shabana - Tusker	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2
08.02.25	Tusker - Police FC	0:0
29.09.24	Police FC - Tusker	1:1
20.12.23	Tusker - Police FC	1:0
15.04.23	Tusker - Police FC	1:0
28.01.23	Police FC - Tusker	3:0
05.03.22	Tusker - Police FC	1:1

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