Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday


	Mathare United		Sofapaka

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.92	3.4
	2.04	2.93	3.77
	2.25	2.82	3.41	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.3
	2.1	2.98	3.7
	2.05	2.8	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.51)	2.88 ↑ (2.86)	3.56 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathare United
42.9%

Draw
31.6%

Sofapaka
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

32%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

30.7%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathare United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mathare United's performance.

Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sofapaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Mathare United - Sofapaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mathare United will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Sofapaka will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sofapaka (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Okoth D. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 1.

Mathare United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sofapaka has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sofapaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Mathare United won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:32. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mathare United won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
12.12.25	Bidco United - Mathare United	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	0:1 ✺
04.12.25	Nairobi United - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Mathare United - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 TLWLW
- Sofapaka FC
Kenyan Premier League
14.12.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Kenya CB - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sofapaka - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
24.11.25	Sofapaka - Ulinzi Stars	1:3 ✺
15.11.25	Bandari - Sofapaka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
02.05.25	Sofapaka - Mathare United	1:1
21.09.24	Mathare United - Sofapaka	1:1
08.03.23	Sofapaka - Mathare United	1:0
08.01.23	Mathare United - Sofapaka	0:4
06.05.22	Mathare United - Sofapaka	Sofapaka awarded
20.10.21	Sofapaka - Mathare United	1:2
31.07.21	Mathare United - Sofapaka	2:1

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