Match Info

A-League Women - Round 19

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Ctrl cyber Pitch (Melbourne)

Referee: Mossin I. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Channel 10, Paramount+
Hong-kong	HOY TV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Canberra United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.68
	2.48	3.5	2.78
	2.25	3.77	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.63
	2.33	3.42	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.67)	3.42 ↓ (3.7)	2.76 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
39.6%

Draw
27%

Canberra United
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

26.6%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Melbourne City's form might have worsened.

Canberra United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Canberra United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+19.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canberra United than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Canberra United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Melbourne City - Canberra United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Mieres M. (G) 8. Apostolakis A. 5. Otto T. 13. Stott R. (C) 3. Turner D. 12. McMahon S. 16. Roestbakken K. 18. Davidson L. 22. Henry B. 11. Jackson D. 21. Keane A.	1. James S. (G) 25. Malone D. 12. Taylor-Young H. 11. Robers E. 33. Sasaki N. 32. Gordon B. 3. Anton E. 13. Christopherson S. (C) 28. Bertolissio T. 6. Aulicino J. 7. Hawkins E.
Substitutes
23. Barbieri M. (G) 7. Butrus D. 14. Hughes L. 17. Jugovic K. 6. McKenna L. 15. Uchendu C.	19. Dale S. 9. De Domizio K. 8. Grove S. 18. Majstorovic C. (G) 2. McKenzie A. 5. Wardlow J.
Coaches
Matricciani M.	Jagarinec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
61', Sasaki N. ↓, De Domizio K. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Keane A. ⚽, Jackson D. (A),
66', Apostolakis A. ↓, McKenna L. ↑,
69', Malone D. ↓, Grove S. ↑,
72', Keane A. ↓, Butrus D. ↑,
78', Hawkins E. ↓, Dale S. ↑,
78', Bertolissio T. ↓, Wardlow J. ↑,
83', McMahon S. ↓, Hughes L. ↑,
83', Davidson L. ↓, Uchendu C. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Uchendu C. ⚽, Henry B. (A),
85', 2 - 1, Gordon B. ⚽,
87', 3 - 1, Uchendu C. ⚽, Stott R. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Melbourne City is seen as the favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 37:23. (average 2.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 19:9. (average 2.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City FC Women
Australian A-League Women
20.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne City	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Melbourne City - Brisbane Roar	5:2 ✺
04.02.26	Melbourne City - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Adelaide United - Melbourne City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTWLL
- Canberra United
Australian A-League Women
21.02.26	Canberra United - Western Sydney Wanderers	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Perth Glory - Canberra United	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sydney FC - Canberra United	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Canberra United - Melbourne Victory	3:1 ✺
23.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Canberra United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
13.12.25	Canberra United - Melbourne City	2:1
01.03.25	Canberra United - Melbourne City	1:1
15.12.24	Melbourne City - Canberra United	4:2
04.02.24	Canberra United - Melbourne City	3:1
20.10.23	Melbourne City - Canberra United	2:1
02.04.23	Melbourne City - Canberra United	3:3
23.12.22	Canberra United - Melbourne City	0:4

Melbourne City - Canberra United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide