Match Info

A-League Women - Play Offs - Final

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Melbourne City		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.1
	2.18	3.41	3.37
	2.08	3.35	3.51	Watch
	2.1	3	3.1
	2.03	3.34	3.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.96)	3.25 ↓ (3.47)	3.26 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne City
43.7%

Draw
28.2%

Wellington Phoenix
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.3%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

24.3%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Melbourne City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: Melbourne City will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Mieres M. (G) 5. Otto T. 13. Stott R. (C) 3. Turner D. 16. Roestbakken K. 18. Davidson L. 12. McMahon S. 6. McKenna L. 22. Henry B. 21. Keane A. 9. McNamara H.	1. Esson V. (G) 5. Walker E. 4. Barry M. (C) 16. Van der Meer M. 11. Elliott M. 23. Nunn B. 32. Pijnenburg E. 7. Jale G. 24. Vlok P. 14. Leon L. 31. Woods M.
Substitutes
8. Apostolakis A. 23. Barbieri M. (G) 7. Butrus D. 14. Hughes L. 11. Jackson D. 20. Karic C. 2. Wilson E.	30. Anthony M. 27. Benson Z. 15. Brazendale D. 22. Feinberg-Danieli A. (G) 8. Fraser M. 3. Jaber T. 21. Wall L.
Coaches
Matricciani M.	Priestman B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, McNamara H. ⚽, Keane A. (A),
43', 2 - 0, McNamara H. ⚽, McMahon S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Leon L. ↓, Anthony M. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, McKenna L. ⚽, Roestbakken K. (A),
52', 3 - 1, Woods M. ⚽,
53', Vlok P. ↓, Fraser M. ↑,
65', Elliott M. ↓, Wall L. ↑,
72', Walker E. 🟨,
78', McKenna L. ↓, Hughes L. ↑,
87', Roestbakken K. ↓, Apostolakis A. ↑,
90+1', McNamara H. ↓, Jackson D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 5.

Melbourne City is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Wellington has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Melbourne City could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Melbourne City won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 2.1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne City won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne City FC Women
Australian A-League Women
09.05.26	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Newcastle Jets - Melbourne City	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League Women
29.03.26	Melbourne City - Nasaf Qarshi	2:1 ✺
Australian A-League Women
22.03.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Melbourne City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWW
- Wellington Phoenix Women
Australian A-League Women
09.05.26	Wellington Phoenix - Brisbane Roar	2:0 ET ✺
03.05.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Wellington Phoenix - Western Sydney Wanderers	0:1 ✺
25.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League Women
09.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:2
06.12.25	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	1:0
29.03.25	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	0:1
28.12.24	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
20.01.24	Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix	2:1
14.10.23	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	0:1
19.11.22	Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City	1:4

Melbourne City - Wellington Phoenix: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide