Match Info

AUSTRALIA: A-League - Round 13

Date: 10 January 2025, Friday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Australia	Paramount+
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	Vidio
Japan	U-NEXT
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 2
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Singapore	StarHub TV+
South-korea	SPOTV, SPOTV Now
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App


	Melbourne Victory		Western United

	1	X	2
	1.73	4	4.33	Watch
	1.77	4	3.9
	1.72	4.2	4.2
	1.73	4.2	4.28	Watch
	1.75	3.9	4.2
	1.74	4.2	4.18	Watch
	1.72	4.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.81)	4.1 ↑ (4.08)	4.18 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
54.4%

Draw
23%

Western United
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

23.2%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

24.6%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Western United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Melbourne Victory - Western United Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Western United will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Duncan J. (G) 2. Geria J. 5. Hamill B. 21. Roderick 3. Traore A. 6. Teague R. 14. Valadon J. 7. Arzani D. 8. Machach Z. 27. Piscopo R. 10. Fornaroli B.	33. Sutton M. (G) 13. Russell T. 6. Imai T. 30. Leonard D. 17. Garuccio B. 37. Vickery L. 23. Bozinovski R. 32. Thurgate A. 20. Walatee A. 19. Botic N. 9. Ibusuki H.
Substitutes
28. Bos K. 30. Graskoski D. (G) 18. Monge F. 22. Rawlins J. 11. Santos 17. Velupillay N. 9. Vergos N.	77. Danzaki R. 10. Grimaldi M. 1. Heward-Belle T. (G) 44. Lauton J. 7. Najjarine R. 24. Ruhs M. 22. Vidmar K.
Coaches
Diles A.	Aloisi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Hamill B. ⚽, Valadon J. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Ibusuki H. ⚽, Garuccio B. (A),
24', Thurgate A. 🟨,
39', 2 - 1, Fornaroli B. ⚽, Arzani D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
56', Traore A. 🟨,
56', Arzani D. 🟨,
57', Garuccio B. 🟨,
66', Piscopo R. ↓, Velupillay N. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Walatee A. ⚽, Vickery L. (A),
75', Fornaroli B. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
75', Traore A. ↓, Bos K. ↑,
75', Arzani D. ↓, Santos ↑,
75', Bozinovski R. ↓, Lauton J. ↑,
79', Walatee A. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
79', Vickery L. ↓, Danzaki R. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Santos ⚽, Machach Z. (A),
87', Machach Z. ↓, Rawlins J. ↑,
88', Bos K. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 3, Botic N. ⚽, Thurgate A. (A),
90+2', Botic N. 🟨,
90+3', Grimaldi M. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 4, Ibusuki H. ⚽, Danzaki R. (A),

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Melbourne Victory won 2.

Recent matches Melbourne Victory is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Western United is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Western United could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Western United have a series of guest games.

In this match Melbourne Victory is a favorite.

There will not play in Western United: Kaddour K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Western United: Donachie J. (Calf Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 29:28 (average 1.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Melbourne Victory won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14:18 (average 1.8:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
04.01.25	Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:2 ✺
31.12.24	Auckland FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0 ✺
28.12.24	Sydney - Melbourne Victory	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Melbourne Victory - Melbourne City	1:1 ✺
08.12.24	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLTW
- Western United
Australian A-League
07.01.25	Melbourne City - Western United	2:0 ✺
03.01.25	Perth Glory - Western United	2:3 ✺
29.12.24	Western United - Brisbane Roar	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Auckland FC - Western United	0:4 ✺
14.12.24	Sydney - Western United	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
01.12.24	Western United - Melbourne Victory	1:3
14.03.24	Western United - Melbourne Victory	2:2
20.02.24	Melbourne Victory - Western United	2:1
13.03.23	Melbourne Victory - Western United	1:2
26.12.22	Western United - Melbourne Victory	1:0
Australian Cup
03.08.22	Western United - Melbourne Victory	2:1
Australian A-League
21.05.22	Melbourne Victory - Western United	1:4

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