Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 20

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday


	Mensajero		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.1	1.91
	3.5	3.1	1.93
	3.75	3.25	1.95
	3.45	3	1.9
	4.03	3.03	2
	3.82	3.18	1.99
	3.6	3.15	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↓ (4.33)	3.12 ↓ (3.2)	1.95 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mensajero
24.5%

Draw
29.1%

Talavera de la Reina
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

28%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

28.7%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mensajero has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Talavera de la Reina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mensajero - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Talavera will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Mensajero won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Mensajero won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mensajero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.01.24	Ursaria - Mensajero	2:2 ✺
14.01.24	Mensajero - UD San Fernando	1:0 ✺
07.01.24	Mensajero - CD Guadalajara	4:1 ✺
17.12.23	Unión Adarve - Mensajero	3:3 ✺
10.12.23	Mensajero - San Sebastian Reyes	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TWWTL
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.01.24	Talavera de la Reina - Getafe B	3:0 ✺
14.01.24	Villanovense - Talavera de la Reina	0:1 ✺
07.01.24	Navalcarnero - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Talavera de la Reina - Numancia	1:1 ✺
10.12.23	Illescas - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
17.09.23	Talavera de la Reina - Mensajero	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
10.04.16	Mensajero - Talavera de la Reina	3:0
22.11.15	Talavera de la Reina - Mensajero	3:2

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