Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 19

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday


	Ursaria		Mensajero

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	4
	1.8	3.2	3.9
	1.87	3.4	4
	1.89	3.28	4.17
	2	3	3.4
	1.88	3.38	3.99
	1.9	3.25	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.12)	3.25 ↑ (3.08)	3.89 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ursaria
48.6%

Draw
28%

Mensajero
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

29.7%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ursaria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ursaria's performance.

Mensajero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ursaria than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ursaria that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mensajero than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Ursaria - Mensajero Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Ursaria is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Mensajero is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Mensajero have a series of home games.

In this match Ursaria is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ursaria won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDE Ursaria
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.01.24	Getafe B - Ursaria	1:0 ✺
07.01.24	Villanovense - Ursaria	3:0 ✺
17.12.23	Ursaria - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
10.12.23	Numancia - Ursaria	3:0 ✺
03.12.23	Ursaria - Illescas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL
- CD Mensajero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.01.24	Mensajero - UD San Fernando	1:0 ✺
07.01.24	Mensajero - CD Guadalajara	4:1 ✺
17.12.23	Unión Adarve - Mensajero	3:3 ✺
10.12.23	Mensajero - San Sebastian Reyes	0:3 ✺
03.12.23	Mensajero - Badajoz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
10.09.23	Mensajero - Ursaria	1:1

Ursaria - Mensajero: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide