Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE SOUTH DIVISION - ROUND 20

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday


	Merthyr Town		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.6	1.98
	3	3.6	2.05
	2.98	4.23	1.95
	2.98	4.23	1.95
	3.04	3.66	2
	3	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.6)	3.82 ↑ (3.64)	2 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
30.5%

Draw
23.9%

Salisbury
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

24.9%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

24.5%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Salisbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Salisbury's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Merthyr Town - Salisbury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 3.

Recent matches Merthyr is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Salisbury is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Salisbury could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Salisbury will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Merthyr won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Merthyr won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
28.11.23	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	0:2 ✺
25.11.23	Walton & Hersham - Merthyr Town	2:3 ✺
18.11.23	Harrow Borough - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
11.11.23	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:3 ✺
04.11.23	Hendon - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLL
- Salisbury FC
English Southern League South Division
25.11.23	Salisbury - Dorchester Town	3:2 ✺
18.11.23	Hanwell Town - Salisbury	2:3 ✺
11.11.23	Salisbury - Hayes & Yeading United	2:1 ✺
04.11.23	Harrow Borough - Salisbury	2:3 ✺
24.10.23	Salisbury - Plymouth Parkway	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
28.01.23	Merthyr Town - Salisbury	5:0
13.09.22	Salisbury - Merthyr Town	1:2
02.04.22	Merthyr Town - Salisbury	5:0
16.11.21	Salisbury - Merthyr Town	2:0
29.09.20	Salisbury - Merthyr Town	Canceled
07.03.20	Salisbury - Merthyr Town	2:1
22.10.19	Merthyr Town - Salisbury	1:1

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