Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 6

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Montpellier		Pau

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.5	4.2
	1.89	3.55	3.90	Watch
	1.86	3.61	4.46
	1.93	3.44	3.91	Watch
	1.83	3.55	4.40
	1.80	3.58	4.31	Watch
	1.82	3.40	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.81)	3.49 ↓ (3.67)	4.2 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
50.9%

Draw
26.8%

Pau
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.5%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Montpellier - Pau Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Montpellier will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 3. El Hannach N. 15. Laporte J. (C) 6. Mouanga Y. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 5. Tardieu F. 27. Meddah D. 18. Pays N. 90. Ayem G. 19. Mukiele N. 11. Camara M.	1. Maubleu B. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 29. Paquiez G. 23. Briancon A. (C) 8. Basse S. 97. Abdallah A. 6. Fall C. 21. Benet J. 5. Rajot L. 7. Benali H. 9. Leye B.
Substitutes
32. Abderrebi H. 23. Benlahlou D. 44. Chennahi T. 50. Dzodic V. (G) 77. Everson Jr 39. Hatchi J. 9. Megnan-Pave L. 40. Vidal-Cartoux N.	10. Brahimi B. 4. Dodote A. 27. Gadegbeku L. 11. Lefebvre A. 22. Mimb Baheng R. 19. Saettel T. 30. Salles E. (G) 18. Sebas J. 39. Tourraine M.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Debes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Abdallah A. 🟨,
54', Laporte J. 🟨,
60', Fall C. 🟨,
63', Ayem G. ↓, Benlahlou D. ↑,
63', Meddah D. ↓, Chennahi T. ↑,
63', Leye B. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
71', Rajot L. ↓, Gadegbeku L. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Sainte-Luce T. ⚽, Tardieu F. (A),
77', Benali H. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
77', Fall C. ↓, Saettel T. ↑,
77', Pouilly T. ↓, Tourraine M. ↑,
78', Mouanga Y. ↓, Abderrebi H. ↑,
89', Abderrebi H. 🟨,
90+3', Gadegbeku L. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 12).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Montpellier is the team to beat.

There will not play in Montpellier: Benhattab Y. (Inactive) Gueguin A. (Knee Injury) Sissoko A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Pau: Daubin Q. (Inactive) Gasnier K. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Montpellier: 4.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6:5	1	12
10	Pau FC	7	2	2	3	6:6	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
05.09.26	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Montpellier - Boulogne	0:0 ✺
21.08.26	Dunkerque - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Nancy - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Montpellier - Dijon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTWWT
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
04.09.26	Pau - Sochaux	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Rodez - Pau	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Pau - Nancy	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Dijon - Pau	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Pau - Annecy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
20.03.26	Pau - Montpellier	0:0
06.12.25	Montpellier - Pau	0:1
Coupe De France
06.01.23	Pau - Montpellier	2:1

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