Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Riccardo Silva Stadium (Miami, FL)

Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Miami		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.25	3.5	2.78
	2.13	3.77	3.01
				Watch
	2.62	3.3	2.4
	2.32	3.48	2.75	Watch
	2.48	3.35	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.25)	3.45 ↑ (3.26)	2.64 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miami
38.7%

Draw
26.6%

Lexington
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

28.3%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Miami - Lexington Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Miami (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Hamid B. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 13. Knutson D. 21. Akinyode B. 3. Mitrano A. 5. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 11. Veron D. 30. Vazquez C. 10. Blanco S. (C) 26. Melano L. 9. Bonfiglio F.	31. Thompson B. (G) 12. Zengue X. 6. Hafferty J. (C) 5. Burks K. 24. Sargeant K. 3. Djeffal S. 8. Nick Firmino 23. Midence A. 11. Epps M. 71. Adedokun M. 33. Ajago F.
Substitutes
35. Bent B. 4. Cardona N. 22. Celeste F. 7. Gavilanes A. 29. Hoyos K. 19. Lawrence M. 32. Lucas DePaula 12. Martell R. (G) 18. Zarate T.	99. Burke C. 16. Caceres E. 27. Gilbert G. 1. Ketterer L. (G) 80. Williams D. 15. Wu D.
Coaches
Maddoni G.	Boss T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Bonfiglio F. ⚽, Melano L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hamid B. ↓, Martell R. ↑,
52', Hafferty J. 🟨,
59', Veron D. ↓, Cardona N. ↑,
60', Ajago F. 🟨,
63', Mitrano A. ↓, Celeste F. ↑,
72', Zengue X. ↓, Olney C. ↑,
72', Midence A. ↓, Burke C. ↑,
73', Burks K. ↓, Wu D. ↑,
75', Blanco S. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
75', Melano L. ↓, Lawrence M. ↑,
85', Vazquez C. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Burke C. ⚽, Sargeant K. (A),
90+6', Celeste F. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).

Miami has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lexington is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miami FC
USL Championship
05.07.25	Miami - Tulsa	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
28.06.25	Greenville Triumph - Miami	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
21.06.25	Detroit City - Miami	2:0 ✺
18.06.25	Miami - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TLLWL
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
04.07.25	Phoenix Rising - Lexington	0:1 ✺
USL Cup
28.06.25	Richmond Kickers - Lexington	0:3 ✺
USL Championship
20.06.25	Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Lexington - New Mexico United	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Monterey Bay - Lexington	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWWL

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