Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Disney+
Finland	KuPS TV
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Sweden	Disney+


	Midtjylland		KuPS Kuopio

	1	X	2
	1.17	7.5	13	Watch
	1.2	6.75	13
	1.13	7.9	16.5	Watch
	1.15	8.21	15.59
	1.19	6.77	13.09	Watch
	1.17	5.5	13
	1.19	7.79	12.9	Watch
	1.39	4.6	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.35)	6.88 ↑ (5.4)	13.01 ↑ (6.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
79%

Draw
13.8%

KuPS Kuopio
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

17.3%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

16.9%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Midtjylland's performance.

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KuPS Kuopio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Midtjylland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KuPS Kuopio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76%	20%	4%

Midtjylland - KuPS Kuopio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Midtjylland (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - KuPS (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - KuPS (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Midtjylland will win (36 of 46 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.34% – 90.18%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Midtjylland will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Midtjylland (votes: 14 - 66.7%). KuPS (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Olafsson E. (G) 43. Mbabu K. 6. Erlic M. 22. Bech Sorensen M. (C) 29. Paulinho 11. Osorio D. 19. Bravo P. 21. Castillo D. 58. Simsir A. 9. Buksa A. 7. Franculino	1. Kreidl J. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 15. Cisse I. 33. Hamalainen T. 24. Armah B. 14. Pasanen S. 10. Arifi D. 13. Oksanen J. 34. Ruoppi O. 20. Toure M. 8. Pennanen P. (C)
Substitutes
55. Bak V. 20. Byskov V. 14. Chilufya E. 10. Cho Gue-Sung 80. Dani Silva 90. Etim F. 13. Gabriel A. 41. Gogorza M. 74. Junior Brumado 3. Lee Han-Beom 1. Lossl J. (G) 31. Selin L. (G)	12. Hakala A. (G) 22. Konate P. 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 9. Parzyszek P. 37. Pitkanen M. (G) 4. Ricardo P. 11. Sadiku A. 7. Voutilainen J.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Wiss J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Buksa A. ⚽, Osorio D. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Osorio D. ⚽, Simsir A. (A),
40', Cisse I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Franculino ↓, Byskov V. ↑,
62', Buksa A. ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
62', Simsir A. ↓, Gogorza M. ↑,
62', Pasanen S. ↓, Parzyszek P. ↑,
62', Armah B. ↓, Konate P. ↑,
72', Erlic M. 🟨,
72', Toure M. ↓, Luyeye-Lutumba J. ↑,
76', Pennanen P. 🟨,
79', Castillo D. ↓, Dani Silva ↑,
81', 3 - 0, Junior Brumado ⚽, Bech Sorensen M. (A),
83', Ruoppi O. ↓, Sadiku A. ↑,
83', Pennanen P. ↓, Voutilainen J. ↑,
83', Osorio D. ↓, Chilufya E. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 0, Junior Brumado ⚽, Mbabu K. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Midtjylland is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

KuPS is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Midtjylland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Midtjylland is the undisputed favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
17.08.25	Vejle Boldklub Kolding - Midtjylland	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.08.25	Midtjylland - Fredrikstad	2:0 ✺
Danish Superliga
10.08.25	Midtjylland - Fredericia	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	Fredrikstad - Midtjylland	1:3 ✺
Danish Superliga
03.08.25	AGF Aarhus - Midtjylland	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWTWT
- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.08.25	KuPS Kuopio - Inter Turku	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.08.25	KuPS Kuopio - RFS	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.25	KTP Kotka - KuPS Kuopio	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.25	RFS - KuPS Kuopio	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.25	KuPS Kuopio - Haka	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWWWW

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