Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 4

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Millonarios		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.37	3.24	3.2
	2.26	3.34	3.12	Watch
	2.3	3	3
	2.39	3.21	2.94	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.32)	3.2 ↑ (3.05)	3.09 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
40.4%

Draw
29.3%

Independiente Medellín
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

30.5%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29.6%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Millonarios - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Novoa D. (G) 3. Samuel M. 26. Llinas A. (C) 17. Arias J. 22. Valencia S. 8. Victoria Palacios D. S. 18. Urena R. 23. Castro L. 24. Angulo J. 33. Castro A. 27. Contreras R.	1. Ichazo S. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 4. Mantilla K. 24. Ortiz J. 26. Mena Perea E. 16. Loboa H. 6. Moreno D. 13. Chaverra F. 19. Fydriszewski F. 7. Berrio L. 11. Yony Gonzalez
Substitutes
20. Banguero D. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 9. Falcao R. 6. Mosquera S. 35. Mosquera S. 38. Rodriguez D. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 28. Vega S. 30. Viveros S.	25. Chaux E. (G) 28. Davila A. 9. Larrosa E. 17. Mancilla G. 20. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 23. Palacios M. 8. Serna A. 18. Viveros J.
Coaches
Giraldo C.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Yony Gonzalez 🟨,
39', Berrio L. 🟨,
45+2', Victoria Palacios D. S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yony Gonzalez ↓, Montano J. ↑,
46', Victoria Palacios D. S. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
50', Castro L. 🟨,
58', Llinas A. ↓, Mosquera S. ↑,
58', Castro L. ↓, Falcao R. ↑,
59', Viveros S. 🟨,
68', Urena R. 🟨,
79', Angulo J. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
82', Chaverra F. 🟨,
85', Urena R. 🟨,
90', Castro A. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
90', Arias J. 🟨,
90+2', Berrio L. ↓, Larrosa E. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 1.

Millonarios is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ind Medellín is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Millonarios has had a series of away games.

Millonarios will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.9:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19:12	7	22
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
28.01.26	Deportivo Pasto - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Millonarios - Junior Barranquilla	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.01.26	Boca Juniors - Millonarios	0:0 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
11.01.26	River Plate - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLTL
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
27.01.26	Independiente Medellín - Deportes Tolima	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Medellín	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
17.12.25	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
03.08.25	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:0
15.02.25	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	0:1
18.07.24	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:1
21.01.24	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	5:0
30.11.23	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	2:1
26.11.23	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	1:0
18.09.23	Independiente Medellín - Millonarios	1:1

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