Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Millonarios		Real Cartagena

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.25	Watch
	1.49	3.6	6.25
	1.48	3.8	5.9	Watch
	1.57	4	7.18
	1.33	5.18	7.59	Watch
	1.44	3.6	7
	1.53	3.97	6.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.34)	4.02 ↓ (4.25)	6.63 ↓ (9.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
62.8%

Draw
23.1%

Real Cartagena
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.7%

21.7%

9.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

15.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Millonarios's form might have worsened.

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Millonarios that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Millonarios - Real Cartagena Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Real Cartagena will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Marimon L. ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 0, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 3 - 0, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽,
90+1', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Millonarios is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Cartagena has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Millonarios may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Millonarios is the obvious favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
28.07.25	Millonarios - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
23.07.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
19.06.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
16.06.25	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	0:1 ✺
11.06.25	Millonarios - Once Caldas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLWT
- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
21.07.25	Bogotá - Real Cartagena	0:3 ✺
14.07.25	Real Cartagena - Internacional de Palmira	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Real Cartagena - Internacional de Palmira	3:3 ✺
11.06.25	Tigres - Real Cartagena	1:1 ✺
07.06.25	Jaguares de Córdoba - Real Cartagena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WTTTL

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